Given the need for urgent action to tackle the climate crisis, Cop28’s failure to call for the phasing out of fossil fuels was “catastrophic” and “dangerous”, the scientists said.
Some called this a “tragedy for the planet and our future,” while others said it was a “dream outcome” for the fossil fuel industry.
The United Nations climate summit concluded on Wednesday with a compromise that called for a “transition” away from fossil fuels. The stronger wording of “phasing out” was supported by 130 of the 198 countries negotiating in Dubai, but was blocked by petrostates including Saudi Arabia.
The agreement was hailed as historic, being the first in three decades of climate change negotiations to refer to fossil fuels as the root cause of the climate crisis. But scientists said the deal had many loopholes and was not commensurate with the severity of the climate emergency.
Professor Michael Mann, a climatologist and geophysicist at the University of Pennsylvania, said: “The failure to reach an agreement to phase out fossil fuels was devastating.” “‘Moving away from fossil fuels’ has been like weak tea at best. It’s like promising your doctor that you’ll give up donuts if you’re diagnosed with diabetes.”
Dr. Magdalena Skipper, editor-in-chief of the scientific journal Nature, said: Unless world leaders accept this reality, our people and our planet will fail. ”
An editorial in Nature magazine said failures around the phase-out were “more than a missed opportunity” and “dangerous”, calling the “2015 Paris climate agreement” to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C. “This is contrary to the stated core objectives.” (2.7F) higher than pre-industrial levels.
“The climate doesn’t care who emits greenhouse gases,” the editorial continued. “There is only one viable path forward and that is for everyone to phase out almost all fossil fuels as quickly as possible.”
Sir David King, chair of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group and former UK chief scientific adviser, said: “The text of the agreement is weak. To ensure we maintain 1.5°C, we need far-reaching measures, including the complete phasing out of fossil fuels.” We need to take full-scale measures.”
He said there was a gulf between clear statements about needed emissions cuts and the actions proposed to achieve those reductions. 1.5C line. But there are a ton of initiatives listed that have no chance of achieving that. ”
Scientists say the loophole includes a call to “accelerate” carbon capture and storage to capture emissions from burning fossil fuels, an option that could play a small role at best. Stated.
Dr Friederike Otto, a climatologist at Imperial College London, said: ‘Until fossil fuels are phased out, the world will continue to become a more dangerous, more expensive and more uncertain place to live.’ Every vague verb and empty promise will put millions more people on the front lines of climate change, and many more will die.”
Professor Martin Siegert, polar scientist and Vice-Chancellor of the University of Exeter, said: The failure of COP28 to make a clear commitment to stop burning fossil fuels is a tragedy for the planet and our future. The world is heating up faster and more powerfully than the police response to deal with it. ”
Professor Mike Berners-Lee, a carbon emissions expert at Lancaster University, said: “Cop28 is a dream come true for the fossil fuel industry, because while it looks like progress is being made, it is not.” .
Dr Elena Cantarello, senior lecturer in sustainability science at Bournemouth University in the UK, said: ‘It is deeply disappointing to see how so few countries have been able to prioritize short-term national interests over the future of people and nature. “I think so,” he said. ”
Dr James Dyck, Associate Professor of Earth System Dynamics at the University of Exeter, said: “Cop28 needed to make a clear statement. The deal’s call for the need to transition away from fossil fuels is welcome, but there are a number of caveats and loopholes in the deal that make it meaningless. There is a risk of turning it into something.
“This agreement is being hailed as a milestone, not so much a step change as it is an attempt to build on previous failures regarding the increasingly urgent need to quickly stop burning coal, oil and gas. It shows.”
Scientists’ comments resonate Ann Rasmussen’sChief Negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States, whose speech at the Cop28 closing ceremony earned a standing ovation from attendees: “We cannot just make deals that refer to the science and ignore what the science shows us.” It’s not enough.’ We have to do it. ”
Climate science was at the heart of the spat that dominated the first week of the summit after the Guardian newspaper exposed comments by Cop28 president Sultan al-Jaber that: “There is no science, there is no scenario. It means phasing out fossil fuels to achieve a temperature of 1.5 degrees,” Al Jaber later said. “I have said many times that the phase-out and phase-out of fossil fuels is inevitable. In fact, it is essential.”
Dr. Lisa Schipper, professor of development geography at the University of Bonn in Germany, said:Panel discussion on climate change [most recent report]Because the science described in the report makes clear that we need to phase out fossil fuels to prevent us from reaching the point of no return. ”
Mr. Mann has, for example, allowed super-majorities to vote on decisions over the objections of hardline petrostates, and allowed oil executives like Mr. Al Jaber, who runs the United Arab Emirates’ national oil company, to control the future of oil. He said police regulations need to be reformed, including banning people from leading companies. the top.
“Let’s fix it, not end it,” Mann said. “Cop28 is the only multilateral framework for negotiating global climate policy. But at a time when the window of opportunity to keep warming below catastrophic levels is closing, Cop28 has achieved meaningful progress. That this has not been done is a source of great concern.”
