The world’s first drone war is occurring in Ukraine

There is a lot of blame-shifting going on for the failed military attack on Ukraine. But strangely, there is little discussion of the real causes: the steep learning curve of the Russian military and the military technology revolution currently occurring on both sides.

The Russo-Ukrainian war began as a classic artillery battle. Currently, the world is rapidly evolving into a drone war.

Drones are everywhere. they destroy everything. Small FPV (first-person view) drones (“species” in combat parlance) are already hunting individual soldiers. The Russian attack on Avziivka was a disaster, with 70 percent of Russian armor destroyed by drones (the rest by mines). And Ukraine has fewer drones than Russia.

There are already swarms of drones, guided onto the battlefield as a unit and targeted individually. Drones clear mine flails and make minefields impassable. But soon they will clear the mines.

A 155 mm shell costs the US Army $3000 and cannot change course. FPV “seeds” cost between $300 and $400 and can be piloted. The payload is much smaller, up to 6 pounds, but what if the cumulative attack hits the tank directly from the rear? Russian tanks are especially vulnerable in this regard. The frontal armor is thick and ammunition is stored at the rear of the turret. FPV can fly over and poke at the turret-to-body joint. What happens next is quite spectacular.

Another option is to damage the truck. The tank is then abandoned, and at night an expensive $50,000 “bomber” quadcopter attacks the tank with 3D-printed bombs. This “bomber” is noisier and slower than his ultra-fast FPV, which flies at 190 miles per hour, but has a payload of 40 pounds. That’s why they fly at night.

There is little chance of a gun hitting an advancing tank. The chance that a good drone operator (now “drone driver”) will crash a tank with his FPV is he 30%. Drones may also have an advantage over Javelin anti-tank missiles. Javelins require line-of-sight, whereas drones simply fly until they can see their target.

Early in the war, the M777 howitzer was a game-changer for the Ukrainian military. Currently, the moment an artillery shell is fired, counter-battery radar can pinpoint its location, and Russian Lancet drones loitering nearby can destroy it.

The Paladin, unlike the M777, is a self-propelled howitzer that can be quickly towed after firing, but in orbit. You can’t go far. And unlike Excalibur, Lancet allows you to see around you.

Swedish Archer is much better. It has wheels instead of tracks and a multi-shot simultaneous collision mode. This means firing multiple missiles in quick succession on different trajectories to hit one location at the same time. While the missile is still in the air, it will run out of itself. In this new war, wheels have a complete advantage over tracks.

This impasse is a direct result of the drone revolution.advancing infantry all at once It is still being taken out of its shell. But this too is changing. Small groups of soldiers are increasingly being hunted by his FPV “seeds”.

The drone revolution began in desperation and a shell shortage, with Ukrainian volunteers piloting inexpensive “marriage drones.” On February 23, 2022, they were working as private photographers to photograph their wedding. The next evening, they were coordinating a barrage of fire with the help of civilian drones. Within weeks, they had installed grenades and constructed a homemade release mechanism.

Drones were made in garages across Ukraine. There are more than 200 varieties made using cheap Chinese-made assembly parts, and there are long lines for the most popular ones. The Russian military initially lagged behind, but now President Putin has fully expanded its assembly capabilities, while the Ukrainians are still playing as amateurs.

“Last year, the ratio of drone strikes in Bakhmut was 10 to 1 in our favor, but now the ratio is 1 to 5 in favor of Russia,” said Yuri Lytsenko, a former political prisoner and former head of Ukraine’s Attorney General. 58) said. On the first day of the war, immediately after successful cancer treatment, he spent months operating drones from the front lines in the trenches of Bahmut.

Both countries still buy assembled parts from China, but China sells mainly to President Putin. There’s nothing gross here. Sales to Ukraine are not prohibited. Russian buyers just sit in Chinese factories and wholesale produce. Last year, some would have bet that Ukraine’s desperation would outweigh Russia’s ossified state apparatus, which is incapable of making quick decisions. Currently, beleaguered Ukraine has the advantage of state institutions that have proven to be neither rigid nor stupid.

The biggest bottleneck at the moment is production rates, which are increasing dramatically as Chinese factories mass-produce assembled parts. Old battlefields were covered in buzzing flies. Soon it will be covered by buzzing drones. Another bottleneck, he said, is that drones are guided by human drivers and can easily succumb to electronic countermeasures. The impact is clear. The next step is to create an AI drone. AI drones acquire targets on their own, making them immune to electronic countermeasures and requiring no extra personnel.

This revolution is happening at such an alarming rate that I’m betting we’ll see AI drones destroying tanks in the steppes of Ukraine sooner than we’ll see fully autonomous Teslas on the streets of Los Angeles. . No one will sue if the drone fails and takes down the wrong target.

Author and journalist Yulia Latynina worked for the Moscow radio station Echo and the Novaya Gazeta newspaper until it was shut down as part of the current Ukraine war. She is a recipient of the U.S. Department of State’s Freedom Defense Award.