WASHINGTON, DC (November 13, 2023) – AAA predicts that 55.4 million travelers will head more than 80 miles from home during the Thanksgiving travel period*. This year’s Thanksgiving prediction is a 2.3% increase over last year, making it the third highest Thanksgiving prediction since AAA began its survey of holiday travel in 2000. The top two years were 2005 and 2019, respectively.
“Thanksgiving and travel go hand in hand for many Americans, and we expect more people to hit the roads, air, and sea this holiday than in 2022,” said AAA Travel Senior Vice President Paula Tweedale said. “Travel demand remains strong year-round, and AAA’s Thanksgiving forecast reflects the continued desire to spend time with loved ones far away.”
Most Thanksgiving travelers drive to their destinations. AAA predicts that 49.1 million Americans will get behind the wheel, an increase of 1.7% compared to 2022. Drivers could end up paying less for gas than they did last Thanksgiving, when the national average was $3.58 for him. Even as global tensions ripple through the oil market, this year’s national average peaked at $3.87 in mid-August and has continued to fall since then.
AAA expects 4.7 million people to fly on Thanksgiving. This compared to 2022 he recorded the highest number of Thanksgiving air travelers since 2005, an increase of 6.6%. The Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving are the busiest and most expensive days for air travel before the holiday. Sunday is typically the busiest day, but the Monday after Thanksgiving is also a popular day to fly back, according to AAA data.
The number of people traveling by cruise, bus and train on Thanksgiving increased by nearly 11% compared to last year. AAA estimates that 1.55 million travelers will use these other modes of transportation to head out of the city, which was hit hard during the pandemic but is well on its way back up. “The cruise industry in particular has made a remarkable comeback,” Tweedale added. “Thanksgiving cruises are mostly full and many travelers want to spend their holiday at sea.”
The best and worst times to drive, and peak subway congestion times.
INRIX, a transportation data and insight provider, said Wednesday, Nov. 22 will be the busiest day on roads during the Thanksgiving holiday travel period, with average travel times reaching 80% of normal in some metropolitan areas. I’m predicting it. INRIX recommends departing in the morning or after 6pm to avoid the biggest holiday crowds.
“The day before Thanksgiving is notorious for being one of the busiest days on our roads. Travelers should expect significant delays, especially in and around major cities,” INRIX said. said transportation analyst Bob Picheux. “Knowing when and where traffic jams will occur can minimize the frustration of holiday traffic. We provide drivers with a transportation app, local his DOT notifications, and real-time updates. We recommend using our 511 service.”
Please note that the times listed below are for the time zone where the metro is located. For example, Atlanta route = ET, Los Angeles route = PT.
Busiest day for driving overall |
|||||||
date |
time |
Comparison with typical |
|||||
Wednesday, November 22nd |
2pm to 6pm |
11.44% |
|||||
Best and worst times to drive |
|||||||
date |
worst travel time |
Optimal travel time |
|||||
Wednesday, November 22nd |
2pm to 6pm |
Before 11am |
|||||
Thursday, November 23rd |
11am to 3pm |
Before 10am, after 5pm |
|||||
Friday, November 24th |
12:00 – 4:00pm |
Before 11am, after 7pm |
|||||
Saturday, November 25th |
3pm to 5pm |
Before 12pm |
|||||
Sunday, November 26th |
3pm to 5pm |
Before 12pm |
|||||
Subway congestion during peak hours |
|||||||
Metro |
root |
Peak congestion period |
EST (Eastern Standard Time) Travel time |
Comparison with typical |
|||
atlanta |
Birmingham to Atlanta via I-20 E |
Friday, 5 p.m. |
4 hours 2 minutes |
54% |
|||
boston |
From Boston to Hyannis via Pilgrim Highway S |
Thursday, 3:30 p.m. |
1 hour 58 minutes |
54% |
|||
Chicago |
Chicago to Milwaukee via I-94 W |
Wednesday, 4 p.m. |
2 hours 1 minute |
18% |
|||
denver |
Fort Collins to Denver via Interstate 25S |
Friday, 5:45 p.m. |
1 hour 37 minutes |
27% |
|||
detroit |
From Detroit to Grand Rapids via I-96 W |
Wednesday, 2:15 p.m. |
3 hours 8 minutes |
35% |
|||
houston |
San Antonio to Houston via I-10 E |
Sunday, 4:45 p.m. |
4 hours 2 minutes |
38% |
|||
Los Angeles |
From Los Angeles to Bakersfield via I-5 N |
Wednesday, 4:30 p.m. |
2 hours 59 minutes |
88% |
|||
minneapolis |
Rochester to Minneapolis via US-52 E |
Friday, 5:30 p.m. |
1 hour 56 minutes |
15% |
|||
new york |
Jersey Shore to New York via Garden Street Parkway N |
Sunday, 11:15 a.m. |
1 hour 51 minutes |
64% |
|||
Portland |
From Cannon Beach to Portland via Sunset Highway E |
Sunday, 2:45 p.m. |
1 hour 59 minutes |
36% |
|||
san diego |
From Palm Springs to San Diego via Interstate 15S |
Sunday, 4:45 p.m. |
2 hours 39 minutes |
twenty four% |
|||
San Francisco |
From Monterey to San Francisco via Santa Cruz Highway N |
Sunday, 7 p.m. |
3 hours 10 minutes |
63% |
|||
Seattle |
Seattle to Bellingham via I-5 N |
Wednesday, 3:30 p.m. |
2 hours 39 minutes |
71% |
|||
tampa |
Tampa to Orlando via I-4 E |
Thursday, 8:15am |
1 hour 55 minutes |
36% |
|||
Washington DC |
Washington DC to Baltimore via Balt/Wash Pkwy N |
Wednesday,2 pm |
1 hour 13 minutes |
71% |
|||
Source: Inrix |
Holiday booking fees
Travelers this holiday season will generally pay less for domestic travel and more for international travel compared to last year. The only exception is airfares, which are slightly more expensive this season for domestic flights and slightly cheaper for international flights. According to AAA data, the average reservation price breakdown for November and December is as follows:
Flight
- The average price for domestic flights was $681, an increase of 5% from 2022.
- The average price for international flights was $1,231, down 5.7% from last year.
Hotel
- The average domestic hotel stay price was $598, down 12% from 2022.
- The average price for an international hotel stay was $772, up 5% from last year.
rental car
- The average price for domestic car rental reservations was $590, down 20% from 2022.
- The average price for international car rental reservations was $696, an increase of 9% from last year.
cruise
- The average price for a domestic cruise was $1,507, down 12% compared to 2022.
- The average price for an international cruise is $2,902, up 24% from last year.
Tours
- The average price for domestic tours was $1,058, down 15% compared to 2022.
- The average price for international tours was $1,208, up 21% from last year.
popular vacation destination
Topping the list of domestic and international destinations this holiday season are warm-weather destinations, theme parks, tourist attractions, historic sites, and cruise port cities.
Domestic | International |
Orlando, Florida | cancun, mexico |
Fort Lauderdale, Florida | mexico city, mexico |
Miami, Florida | punta cana, dominican republic |
Anaheim, California | bahrain |
tampa, florida | rome, italy |
New York City, New York | montego bay, jamaica |
Las Vegas, Nevada | nassau, bahamas |
Honolulu, Hawaii | Bali and Papua New Guinea |
Maui, Hawaii | Paris, France |
San Diego, California | london, united kingdom |
How to predict holidays
travel forecast
S&P Global Market Intelligence, in collaboration with AAA, has developed a proprietary methodology to predict actual domestic travel volumes. Economic variables used to predict current vacation travel are leveraged from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s proprietary database. These data include macroeconomic factors such as employment, production, and household net worth, asset prices such as stock indexes, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism such as gasoline prices, air travel, and hotel stays. will appear. AAA and S&P Global Market Intelligence have quantified the volume of vacation travel going back to 2000.
Estimates of historical travel volumes are obtained from DK SHIFFLET’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/Monitor.SM.performance/monitorSM is a comprehensive survey measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. DK SHIFFLET is a unique tool that contacts more than 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in post-trip estimates of visitor numbers and spending, identifying trends, and predicting U.S. travel behavior. This function has been realized.
Travel forecasts are reported for personal travel. Specifically, AAA and SPGMI project total U.S. holiday travel and expected transportation modes. The travel forecasts in this report were created for the week of October 9, 2023.
*Thanksgiving holiday travel period
This forecast defines the Thanksgiving holiday travel window as the five-day period from Wednesday, November 22nd to Sunday, November 26th.
About AAA
Founded in 1902 by automobile enthusiasts who wanted to improve America’s roads and advocate for safe travel, AAA has transformed into one of North America’s largest membership organizations. Today, AAA provides roadside assistance, travel, discounts, finance and insurance services to enhance the life journey of its 64 million members across North America, including his 57 million in the United States. To learn more about everything AAA has to offer or to become a member, visit AAA.com.
About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides critical intelligence. We empower governments, businesses, and individuals to make confident decisions with the right data, expertise, and connected technology. From helping clients evaluate new investments to guiding his ESG and energy transitions across the supply chain, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate global progress. We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit rating, benchmarking, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. Through a full range of services, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, please visit www.spglobal.com.
About DKSA
DK SHIFFLET boasts the industry’s most complete database of U.S. resident travel within the United States and around the world. The data is collected monthly from a representative sample of the United States, adds more than 60,000 traveling households each year, and is used daily by leading travel organizations and their strategic planning groups. DK SHIFFLET is a global company of MMGY.
About INRIX
Founded in 2004, INRIX pioneered intelligent mobility solutions by transforming big data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights. This innovative approach has made INRIX one of the leading providers of people movement data and analytics. INRIX helps make the world smarter, safer and greener by providing valuable insights to cities, businesses and people. With partners and solutions across the mobility ecosystem, INRIX is uniquely positioned at the intersection of technology and transportation to ensure road user safety and improve traffic signal timing to reduce delays and greenhouse gas emissions. optimizing last-mile delivery, helping develop markets, and more. insight. For more information, please visit INRIX.com.