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Virginia at Louisville (-20.5) | 50.5 – Open (-17.5) | 46.5 (Thu)
Virginia QB Tony Muskett suffers a sprained ankle and is replaced by freshman signal caller and progressive rock legend Anthony “Coheed and” Colandrea (5’11/180) Since then, the line has been climbing steadily, not surprisingly. He started three games earlier this year and posted a 60% completion percentage, but his ball security was too high to average two interceptions per game start. Colandrea has shown great difficulty dealing with the pass rush, ranking 137th out of 144 FBS quarterbacks in PFF passing grade under pressure. It’s pretty reasonable to assume Colandrea will start this Thursday, as it’s a big ask for Muskett to come back from a sprained ankle in such a short amount of time. “Honestly, it’s hard for anyone to get ready in a short week,” UVA coach Tony Elliott said when asked about the reserve freshmen’s level of preparation.
This is a big deal because Louisville’s defense has been an absolute wagon this year, ranking 7th in EPA/Play and 13th overall with a 35% success rate. Their ability to pressure opposing QBs was ferocious, earning them the 14th highest PFF pass rush grade in the country while allowing 18 PPG (17th). The Cardinals are poised to crush the limping Cavaliers, who defeated VT and Duke by a combined score of 57-3 in their last two games and just lost their most recent matchup to Georgia Tech, 45-17. . I think this line will move past the important No. 21 as the week progresses, so grab Louisville now before the Muskets are confirmed to be out.
Arizona vs. Colorado (-10.5) | 54 – Open (9.5) | 57.5(FD)
In one of the most mysterious demotions of the 2023 season, Prime coach embarrassed former OC Sean Lewis’ respected offensive mind by relieving him of play-calling duties and handing it over to Patrick Shurmur. The results were as expected, as Colorado State had just 238 total yards and 15 first downs, but Oregon State dominated the ball for 36 minutes and pressured a beleaguered Shedule Sanders 18 times. Believe it or not, this is actually better than last week when UCLA outplayed Shedur with 24 pressures and 6 sacks while Sanders appeared to take pain shots to end the game. It was improving. He was clearly fading by the end of the game against Oregon State, but that’s an issue this week considering Colorado hosts strong Arizona State.
Head coach Jed Fisch ushered in a prestigious new era, leading Arizona State to three straight wins over Washington State, Oregon State and UCLA after the ill-fated Kevin Sumlin era. He also posted a 77% expected win rate against USC, as AZ has enthusiasm for the soon-to-be-defunct upper-level Pac-12 program. Colorado will be unable to stop the Wildcats’ deadly combo of QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetailoa McMillan, who were teammates at Servite High School in Anaheim, California. The Buffs can’t block anyone with a makeshift offensive line that has been overrun in recent weeks, and quarterback Sanders is already in jeopardy with an injury. I think Arizona takes Colorado this week and easily covers this 10.5 line, which will almost certainly rise as the week progresses.
Florida, LSU (-13.5) | 63.5 (FD) – Open (-12) | 67.5 (approximately)
LSU returned the second-best offensive production in the country (88%) this year, and the result was a success by any reasonable measure. The Tigers are having a Heisman-worthy campaign from QB Jayden Daniels, who ranks 3rd in points per game (42 PPG), 1st in yards per play (8.2) and 4th in completion percentage (55%). Ranked No. 1 in EPA/Overall Play. Daniels left Saturday’s game against Alabama with concussion symptoms after being hit by LB Dallas Turner and is currently following protocols. Head coach Brian Kelly commented on Daniels’ performance:
“He’s just being treated for an injury. And he’s made improvements. But it’s a day-by-day process, but I think he’s making some progress. I can say that.”
LSU’s offense is good, but its defense is the other side of the coin, ranking 132nd in defensive EPA, 116th in yards per play (6.3), and 117th in completion percentage (45.4%). Masu. Florida’s defense is similarly weak, allowing 8.1 yards per pass (105th) and 6.3 yards per play (111th), while ranking 91st in EPA/play. Gators QB Graham Mertz is much more effective than he was at Wisconsin, and freshman receiver Eugene Wilson is the highest-rated first-year wideout according to PFF.
I think there’s a good chance Daniels plays, but LSU backup QB Garrett Nussmeyer is equally reliable as an All-American second-string QB. Florida is over 6-3, and LSU is 9-0 over the course of the week. I think the 4 point drop in game total from 67.5 to 63.5 is an overcorrection, and whoever takes the snaps under center for the Tigers will score 63.5 or more points against this combustible defensive pairing. .
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Other notable line movements
Michigan vs. Penn State (+4.5) | 44.5 – Open (+7) | 48.5 (FD) (Open at (-5) at CIRCA)
Alabama at Kentucky (+10.5) | 47.5 – Open (+12) Around 51.5
Utah at Washington (-9.5) | 54 – Open (-9) | 57.5 CIRCA (Opened 10.5/53.5 on FD)
Ohio State vs. Michigan State (+31.5) | 47.5 – Open (+27.5) | 46.5
Mississippi State at Georgia State (-10.5) | 58.5 – Open (-12) | 56.5 (approximately)
Miami, Florida State University (-14.5) | 49.5 – Open (-13) | 52.5 (approximately)
USC at Oregon (-15.5) | 73.5 – Open (-17) | 73.5 (approximately) (-14 on FD)
Oregon State Stanford (+21) | 54.5 – Open (-17) | 54.5 (approximately)
Maryland at Nebraska (+2.5) | 45 – Open (+2.5) | 41
BetMGM College Football Insights: Championship
Line movement (from last week to now)
- Michigan +240 to +225
- Alabama +1400 to +600
- Washington +1600 to +1200
Highest ticket%
- Michigan 13.5%
- Ohio 9.9%
- Alabama 9.0%
Max handle%
- Alabama 30.8%
- Michigan 10.9%
- Colorado 9.2%
greatest responsibility
BetMGM College Football Insights: Heisman Trophy
Line movement (open, current)
- Michael Penix Jr. +1600, +150
- Bonix +1600, +200
- JJ McCarthy +2500, +600
- Caleb Williams +500, +5000
- Shedul Sanders +12500, +25000
- Travis Hunter +15000, off board
Highest ticket%
- Shedur Sanders 15.1%
- Travis Hunter 12.1%
- Caleb Williams 10.6%
Max handle%
- Caleb Williams 15.3%
- Shedur Sanders 13.7%
- Michael Penix Jr. 11.4%