philadelphia phillies
2023 record: 90 wins, 72 losses
2nd place, National League East
Team OPS: .765 (6th in MLB)
Team ERA: 4.03 (12th in MLB)
what went well
Despite reaching the World Series in 2022, the Phillies were still undervalued by prognosticators heading into this season. In the end, they benefited from the Mets’ costly failure and defeated the N.LDS Braves for the second year in a row. Zach Wheeler was once again the ace of the staff, pitching 192 innings and posting a 3.61 ERA. Bryce Harper made an early comeback from Tommy John surgery and although he slowed a bit, he had another impressive postseason performance with 16 home runs and a 1.095 OPS in his final 49 games. Kyle Schwarber set career highs in home runs, RBIs, and runs scored despite batting .197. The Phillies had nine players reach double digits in home runs, including Nick Castellanos, who bounced back nicely from a lackluster first season in Philadelphia. Matt Stram proved to be a strong offseason acquisition, and Christopher Sanchez became the savior of the rotation. The Phillies’ bullpen, led by Craig Kimbrel, Jose Alvarado, Gregory Soto, and the groundbreaking arm Jeff Hoffman, was one of the better units in the league. Meanwhile, the defense received valuable contributions from Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, and mid-season call-up Johan Rojas.
what went wrong
The Phillies looked poised to make another run to the World Series before dropping their final two NLCS games at home against the Diamondbacks. It was a disappointing end to an otherwise exciting ride. Looking at the big picture of how the Phillies’ season played out, the team didn’t quite acquire Trea Turner as they had hoped after signing him to an 11-year, $300 million contract over the winter. His OPS was .679 until Phillies fans gave him a standing ovation on August 4, which clearly sparked a turnaround. Philadelphia sports fans sometimes get a bad rap. Aaron Nola started 32 games for the third consecutive season, but was hit hard by home runs and posted a disappointing ERA of 4.46. The Phillies had to play the entire 2023 season without first baseman Rhys Hoskins, who suffered a torn ACL in his left knee during spring training.
fantasy slant
**It may not actually be that fast and dirty, but the Aug. 4 ovation is an easy break in Trea Turner’s first season in Philadelphia. Before August 4: .235 batting average, .657 OPS, 24% strikeout rate in 107 games. Since August 4: Batting .337 with 16 home runs, 1.057 OPS, and 16.6 percent strikeout rate in 48 games. The change in his strikeout rate was particularly noticeable, suggesting he may have been under pressure with the weight of a new contract and early struggles. Given his extensive track record, it would be fair to give him some benefit of the doubt. And while Turner didn’t steal as many bases as expected under the new rules, he still had a perfect record of 34 hits for 34 at bats between the regular season and postseason. With this strong finish, Turner is certain to return as a first-rounder in fantasy leagues next season, and if he becomes more comfortable in his second season in Philadelphia, he could earn his spot as a first-rounder early on. The chances of getting it back are very high.
**Bryce Harper survived Tommy John surgery just 160 days later. It was a superhuman feat, but no wonder it took him a while to get his power stroke back. Harper hit only three home runs in his first 58 games (251 at-bats), but hit 18 home runs in the final 68 games of the regular season and games 5 through 13 of the postseason. It’s no exaggeration to say he’s back. While speed isn’t a big part of Harper’s game, he continues to perform well enough in stolen bases to warrant a late first-round or early second-round selection in mixed fantasy leagues. . Harper will only be eligible as a first baseman starting in 2024, which isn’t a bad thing, but keep in mind he could end up back in the outfield.
**How many pitchers are more reliable than Zach Wheeler in fantasy leagues heading into next season? That should be a very small list. Wheeler started 101 games for the Phillies and posted a 3.06 ERA, which advanced metrics show is better than his 3.61 ERA last season. He had only five eligible starting pitchers with a higher walk rate, and he had only 10 with a higher strikeout rate. He’s the whole package. Spencer Strider and Gerrit Cole are expected to be the first two starters in most leagues, but Wheeler has a good chance of being the next in line.
**What should we make of Aaron Nola at this point? The veteran right-hander reached 200 strikeouts this season for the fifth time in his career, but he had a disappointing 4.46 ERA in 32 starts. finished. In fact, he trended downward in several key metrics (swinging strike rate 11.8, CSW% 29.6), hitting his 32nd home run, a career-high, along the way. But after making some mechanical changes, including a slide step off the stretch and adjusting where he watches the pitch clock, he finished on a more positive note. Nola has alternated between good years and disappointing years, so he could have a good year if he can get a better defensive and pitching environment, especially depending on where he signs this offseason. unknown.
**JT Realmuto put together his best fantasy season ever in 2022, but his .762 OPS this season was his lowest since his first full season in the majors in 2015. His strikeout rate jumped to a career-high 25.6%. He contributed to the decline in batting average. Previously, Realmuto’s speed was better than other players at the catcher position, justifying reaching for him, but the new rules now mean that a fantasy manager who fills out the rest of the roster will steal more bases. is not that difficult to find. The incentives are simply not the same. Realmuto is still one of the top fantasy catchers — there’s no question about it — but he’s no longer an outlandish No. 1 option.
major free agents
Aaron Nola, Reece Hoskins, Craig Kimbrel, Michael Lorenzen
team needs
It’s all about rotation. Zack Wheeler is the undisputed ace at this point, but with Aaron Nola becoming a free agent, the next big thing in terms of depth will be players like Taijuan Walker and Ranger Suarez. It doesn’t end there. Therefore, the Phillies will need to either re-sign Nola or find a suitable replacement.
Other needs are less acute, but still require important decisions to be made. The most interesting question is whether Bryce Harper will remain at first base or return to the outfield. If he stays at first base, will the Phillies show faith in Johan Rojas even after he went 4-for-43 during the postseason? The Phillies also look to add depth to their bullpen with the return of Craig Kimbrel in free agency.