It’s becoming increasingly difficult to imagine Bill Belichick returning to the Patriots in 2024. If there were odds set for various potential outcomes (and such odds always exist somewhere), the longest one would be “stay the course.”
If Belichick were to leave, it could happen in a number of ways. he may be fired. He may resign. He may retire. There may even be mutual separation.
Or he could essentially be traded to another team looking for a head coach.
The scenario we envisioned is could take him to Washington. last week. Teams looking for a coach could try to make that deal after the season. So it could be a game of chicken of sorts after the season, with teams potentially interested in Belichick waiting for him to become a free agent and the Patriots interested in Belichick. Waiting to hear from potential teams.
Any team that wants Belichick (if any) will have to make a move at some point. At some point, the Patriots will have to start their own search. And given that any team that wants to hire Belichick would have to conduct a Rooney Rule-compliant search, it will likely take some time for teams that want Belichick to begin that process.
As a practical matter, this could mean things are carefully worked out by the Patriots and the team that needs him before the season ends. This shouldn’t happen, but sometimes it does.
Compensation for the Patriots will be negotiated in advance. Belichick’s contract will be pre-negotiated. Then, at the right time, Belichick’s next team would come calling the Patriots, and the first domino would be flipped.
Whatever happens, the aftermath of the regular season could lead to seismic shifts in the NFL’s power structure over the past two decades. It feels like the plates are shifting. It will be interesting to see when, how and where they go.