The post CJ Stroud, Justin Fields and the low-key questions about the Bears’ QB’s future originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago
Bears general manager Ryan Pauls made a big decision last offseason. With the No. 1 overall pick, the Poles have decided that the best way to shape the future of their franchise is to trade the pick for the best offer and stick with quarterback Justin Fields, or trade Fields. They had to decide whether to take their No. 1 player and a new quarterback. overall selection.
The choice always seemed obvious. Field flashed during a breakup season in which he had no defense or weapons. It was believed that if the Bears could surround him with better weapons and a better front line, he would take off. That theory, coupled with the underwhelming 2023 quarterback class, made it an easy decision for the Poles to trade the pick to the Carolina Panthers.
But eight months after the Bears’ blockbuster trade with the Panthers, that decision seems even more uncertain in hindsight.
The Bears’ baggage from the Panthers remains significant. DJ Moore is a star, Darnell Wright is starting to blossom at right tackle, and Chicago is in the driver’s seat to once again acquire the No. 1 pick through the Panthers, who are 1-9.
But the meteoric rise of Houston Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, who was taken No. 2 overall, and Fields’ up-and-down season have created a fog.
Stroud threw for 2,962 yards, 17 touchdowns and five interceptions in 10 games, completing 62.8 percent of his passes. Stroud led the Texans to a 6-4 record, putting them in position to make the playoffs in a crowded AFC. The 2,962 passing yards are more than Fields had in 15 games last season.
“Stroud always had this kind of upside,” an AFC scout for the team who wasn’t a QB draft candidate told NBC Sports Chicago. “I know some teams were scared of him because of their offense.” [Ohio State runs], but I think the Georgia game showed what he’s capable of. What kind of defense is that, with 10 first-rounders? He threw it on them. If he can do that, he has a pretty good chance of success in the NFL. ”
The Bears enter the final six games of the season with Stroud crowned the dark horse MVP, but they will need to see consistent, high-level quarterback play from Fields to continue to grow around him. They need faith to do that, and it didn’t show late in a 31-26 loss to the Detroit Lions.
The Bears will likely have two picks in the top six or seven in next April’s first round, so we need to examine the decisions made last March and how they were made.
“The question we have to ask ourselves as an organization is: Was our evaluation process sound?” a player personnel staff member told NBC Sports Chicago. “It’s not second guessing the package, right? You get an elite wide receiver. You need that. I like right field and corner.” [Tyrique Stevenson] It might work.You can’t put a price on this year’s first round pick. [2024]given the quarterback coming out.
“But if you think Stroud is going to be a star, or even if he’s better than originally estimated, you need to ask yourself why you let it slip away. Or did you give yourself a chance to see it?” They seemed pretty into Fields. “It seems like there was an error on some level in the evaluation process to trade the pick so early. It was a good trade, don’t get me wrong,” he said. Still, it would be better to get a franchise quarterback.”
Polish said last year that it would take a “shock” to draft a quarterback and move on from Fields. As the Bears look to an uncertain quarterback future and may evaluate Caleb Williams and Drake Maye this offseason, here’s how they arrived at their decision last March. It will need to be thoroughly verified.
Did the Poles even give themselves a chance to get blown away? If the valuation for Stroud was so off, what are the chances of valuing the next crop well if you move on from Fields?
Speaking of Fields, how does this conversation leave him with the remaining six games?
“There’s still a lot to like about him,” the AFC scout said. “Playmaking, the positive side. I think if they can get him to play the way he’s comfortable, you can see how good it can be. If they can get him to play like he does.” [against Detroit] Do it consistently and you’ll find what you’re looking for. If you want to trade for a player of that caliber, you’d be right. ”
So back to Stroud, Williams, and May.
The easiest way to derail a rebuild is to spend top dollar on a misvalued quarterback. It can set you back years and usually ends with people losing their jobs.
The Bears have draft capital this offseason, and a big decision is on the horizon. They can keep Fields and add quality talent around him. Marvin Harrison Jr. is a force to be reckoned with.
Or they could reset the QB contract schedule for Williams or Maye and see what the team is willing to offer Fields.
But they have to be confident that the quarterback who called their name in April is the man and not destined to be consigned to the dustbin of history.
“What’s the bust rate for a quarterback taken in the first round? 40 percent,” said a player personnel manager. “So it’s already a gamble. Now when you look back at the decisions they made last offseason, it makes you think, we can do this right when we failed last year, or looked at it and passed anyway. What is your level of confidence?”
The best-case scenario for the Bears is for Fields to improve over the next six games and enter the offseason feeling secure about his future as quarterback. It’s easy to be seduced by Williams or Maye, but Fields’ certainty is an advantage.
It’s like the boats and box bits from “Family Guy.”
In this case, Fields would prove himself to be a franchise quarterback and be a draft mystery box as well as a boat to build around. Williams, May, whatever. Their potential career outcomes can be wide-ranging. Do you want to get a sure-fire franchise quarterback, or do you want to draft someone who could be just like Fields, for better or worse?
If the Bears go into the offseason without fully evaluating Fields, it will be difficult to turn down the chance to draft either Williams or Maye. Getting a quarterback on a rookie contract is the NFL’s best asset. This, combined with the astronomical turnaround of their top two quarterbacks, creates a gravitational pull that may be difficult for the Bears to escape.
But if they go down that path, can they be trusted to properly evaluate them and make the right decision after they miss or pass Stroud?
The biggest question about last offseason’s decision was not the amount of trade money returned to acquire the No. 1 pick, but the evaluation process that led to that selection. Perhaps Mr. Fields will be healthy again next month and this conversation will become moot. Perhaps Stroud’s rise will be a mirage.
But the Poles and this front office’s biggest decision conveys anticipation for what’s next, and perhaps how they’ll solve another monumental QB puzzle this offseason. This raises important questions that remain unanswered.
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