The strategic cooperation agreement signed today by Bahrain and the United States surprised many parties. While all eyes are on the ongoing saga over a possible U.S.-Saudi-Israel deal, Washington and Manama are talking about increased U.S. involvement in the region with far-reaching implications for the Gulf region and beyond. They were negotiating quietly.
Bahrain and many of its neighbors have long sought greater reliability and predictability from the United States, not just when it comes to the threat posed by Iran, but as a reliable partner on all fronts. From the perspective of some Arab allies, Washington gets colder and hotter. Today’s administration may give you your best attention, but its successor may treat you as an outcast or slow down bilateral cooperation on issues of strategic importance.
Underlying this disconnect between expectations (from Arab leaders) and reality (the capricious embrace of the United States) is a fundamentally flawed logic employed by many in Washington. In other words, the Arab states of the Gulf need American weapons, troops, technology, and markets far more than the United States needs them. The truly precedent-setting aspect of this agreement is the United States’ tacit recognition that this logic no longer holds.
Let’s praise the Biden administration. The Biden administration has learned, adapted, and crafted new policies that are reshaping the modern Middle East. The legally binding agreement commits the United States to consult and provide assistance should Bahrain face an imminent security threat. Never before has the United States extended its security commitments to an Arab nation to this extent. As Secretary of State Antony Blinken explained, the agreement also “strengthens coordination and intelligence integration between the U.S. military.” Those who emphasize that this agreement falls short of NATO Article V-style security are missing the point. A new standard has been set, a new standard from which there is no turning back. This U.S.-Bahrain agreement will serve as the framework and foundation for all future agreements with other regional powers—and those agreements are coming soon, no doubt.
why Bahrain and why now??
Sensing that the time was right, Bahraini leaders began talks on the deal more than a year ago. The country’s government has long wanted to take its historically close relationship with the United States to the next level. Bahrain was the first state in the region to have a major US military base (Naval Central Command) within its territory. First, sign a free trade agreement with the United States. For the first time, it was granted the status of a major non-NATO ally. However, the combination of evolving threats in the region and the pressures of globalization have made it imperative to codify a stronger partnership.
The Abraham Accords gave further momentum to this idea. Rapid and comprehensive cooperation between Israel and the Gulf Arab states has created a new strategic reality that creates new opportunities and possibilities. Bahrain is determined to seize these opportunities.
For America, the road to Jesus was quite circuitous. US President Joe Biden and his foreign policy advisers entered office understandably wary of deepening entanglements in the Middle East. During the 2020 election campaign, Jake Sullivan, future national security adviser and chief negotiator of the deal with Bahrain, presciently wrote: foreign affairs with Daniel Benaim
“[A]Although America’s interests in the Middle East have changed, that does not mean the United States can, will, or should leave the region entirely. Rather, we should lead diplomacy to ultimately set the conditions that allow for a sustained reduction in military presence, while protecting vital interests in regions that remain important to the United States and will be important for years to come. Should. ”
Two and a half years into his term, Mr. Biden has come to understand more fully not only the centrality of the Gulf to U.S. interests, but also the need for greater reciprocity. The withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, the conflict with Saudi Arabia over oil production in October 2022, the failure of nuclear negotiations with Iran, and the increasing competition with China all highlight the importance of not taking our Gulf partners for granted. made an impression on American policy makers. As a result, there was a tendency to formalize the interdependent nature of their relationship.
It is not surprising that the United States chose Bahrain as its first regional partner to enter into such an agreement. No other Gulf Cooperation Council country has this combination of strategic importance and political suitability.
Strategically, Bahrain is a central node of international maritime presence, securing the world’s most important choke points. It is also the country to which Iran has the most extensive and long-standing historical claims to territory, and the country in which the Islamic Republic has undertaken the most aggressive destabilization efforts. An island nation not much larger than Manhattan located just off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain’s size and geography make it an attractive target. Ras Tanura is Saudi Arabia’s largest oil export terminal. It is less than 40 miles from the coast of Bahrain. The neighboring Eastern Province hubs of Dammam, Al Khobar and Al Jubail together account for the majority of Saudi Arabia’s total oil and petrochemical production capacity. The King’s Fahd Causeway, through which an estimated 9.7 million commercial vehicles pass through annually, is one of the busiest land border crossings in the Middle East.
Politically, Bahrain stands toe-to-toe with the United States on the issues that matter most to Washington. The United States has always been a reliable, solid and reliable ally for the United States, and the past few years have proven to be no exception. Unlike some of its neighbors, Manama has not sought to avoid risks by cozying up to China or striking deals with Russia. Its economy, outlook, and foreign policy align almost 100 percent with Washington’s more than anyone else’s.
What’s next? Expect other Arab countries to follow suit, either by signing the U.S.-Bahrain agreement or by negotiating separate agreements based on this precedent. Either way, Bahrain is leading the way, as it has many times before, by showing other countries what imagination and determination can achieve.
Adam Eleri served as U.S. Ambassador to Bahrain from 2007 to 2011. He currently serves as CEO of the strategic advisory firm Ibero-American He Group.