NFL Week 15 was certainly focused on the playoff race. The AFC had six teams entering the weekend tied for sixth place in the playoffs, while the NFC had five teams tied for seventh in the playoffs. Let’s not forget the three teams tied for first place in the NFC South.
Sunday’s game certainly produced some stories as the league heads into Christmas week. The logjam in the conference playoff race has cleared up a bit.
The playoff race was as heated as ever, and there were many overreactions. The takeaway from week 15 is which is actually an overreaction and which is reality? Let’s take a look.
The Cowboys’ winning streak was a product of their schedule.
Overreaction or reality: reality
That 31-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills was an indictment of how favorable the Cowboys’ schedule was over the past five weeks, with Dallas winning all of them. The Cowboys played at home against the New York Giants and then on the road against the Carolina Panthers, outscoring the two teams by an 82-27 margin with a combined record of 7-21.
The Cowboys didn’t have to travel for 27 days, playing at home against the Washington Commanders (4-10), Seattle Seahawks (6-7) and Philadelphia Eagles (10-3). While the Eagles’ win was impressive, Dallas also had 10 days of rest in preparation for a four-game series (38-18 total) against a team with a winning record.
The schedule certainly favored Dallas, even though Dallas is a good team. The Cowboys are still just 1-3 against teams with winning records, with a -38 point differential in those games and -58 on the road against such teams. There’s still a chance to change the narrative, as the Cowboys next face the Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions.
The Bills are the most dangerous team in the AFC.
Overreaction or reality: overreaction
The Bills have been very impressive in recent weeks, losing a close game to the Eagles on the road (they led by 10 points in the second half) before coming off a blowout victory over the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. . Beat the Cowboys at home. The Bills have 8 wins and 6 losses and are not yet in the AFC playoffs, but they look like a team that will be a problem no matter who they play if they make it to the playoffs.
Are they the most dangerous team in the AFC? Time will tell, as the Baltimore Ravens are doing very well and have tough tests in their next two games against the Jacksonville Jaguars and San Francisco 49ers. Dew. Buffalo deserves credit for turning their season around with a 2-1 record in three games against three teams with a combined record of 29-13.
The Bills look primed to make the playoffs in the AFC and will be a problem for anyone they play against. But until Baltimore fails, the Ravens will get the “Most Dangerous Team” nod.
Rams are a playoff team
Overreaction or reality: overreaction
The Rams are currently the seventh seed in the NFC playoff standings, tied with the New Orleans Saints at 7-7. Los Angeles will be the seventh seed in the conference as it holds the conference record tiebreaker over New Orleans.
The Rams are in position to make the playoffs, but their playoff fate really depends on Thursday night’s game against the Saints. If the Rams win, they will be in a good position to advance to the playoffs with a head-to-head tiebreaker against New Orleans with two games remaining.
The game against the 49ers in Week 18 means something for San Francisco, so don’t expect the 49ers to rest their starters in that game. Los Angeles must win the Week 16 game for this statement to have any meaning.
Arthur Smith should be fired as Falcons head coach
Overreaction or reality: reality
Losing to the Panthers is unforgivable. The Falcons were able to play the Panthers this week, taking advantage of what should have been the easiest win of the year against a struggling team. Instead, Atlanta lost to Carolina despite the defense not allowing a touchdown.
The misuse of Kyle Pitts (4 targets) and Drake London (3 targets) is baffling. Let’s not forget that Bijan Robinson only had seven carries. These are all first-round draft picks that Smith hasn’t utilized in his offense.
The Falcons are 20-28 under Smith, but have never won more than seven games in a season in the impoverished NFC South. Time to move on.
Saints will win the NFC South
Overreaction or reality: overreaction
The Saints are the best of the three teams in the NFC South Hunt, but they haven’t shown that all season. New Orleans defeated the Giants, an underdog team in New York, and the Saints picked up their second win against an underdog team (outscoring the Giants and Panthers 52-12).
The Saints have been inconsistent all year, so it’s still hard to tell if this team will win the division. New Orleans will play the Los Angeles Rams next week before facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a likely division-clinching game in Week 17.
Derek Carr threw three touchdown passes for the first time this season, and the Saints averaged 26.7 points over the past three weeks. New Orleans looks like the best team in the division, but they still have a lot to prove.
Overreaction or reality: reality
Houston is currently the No. 8 seed in the AFC playoff race, tied with the Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts for record. Thanks to tiebreakers, the Bengals and Colts are ahead of the Texans. In Sunday’s overtime win, Houston struggled to score without Stroud, with the offense not scoring a touchdown until 3:03 left in the fourth quarter.
The defense against the Tennessee Titans kept the Texans in the game. Case Keenum was without Nico Collins and Tank Dell at wide receiver, leaving Houston in a hole in the passing game. Keenum deserves credit for keeping the Texans alive in the playoff race, but this team can’t make the playoffs in the crowded AFC wild-card hunt without quarterback Stroud.
Houston faces the Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts in the final three weeks, both teams ahead of them in the wild-card standings. It would be huge for Stroud to be back in time for next week.
Jets should tell Aaron Rodgers not to play this year
Overreaction or reality: reality
After the Jets are eliminated from playoff contention, what’s the point in having Rodgers come back and risk yet another Achilles injury? While it’s incredible that Rodgers is continuing to practice and is ready to play 15 weeks after tearing his Achilles, playing Rodgers is a big risk for a team with nothing to play for.
Perhaps Robert Saleh is playing Rodgers in a last ditch effort to save his job. The Jets can eliminate that theory by saying Saleh will return as head coach next year, no matter how the lost season plays out.
It will be fun to see what Rodgers does over the final three weeks, but the Jets need him to go to and win a Super Bowl in 2024 (especially with that defense). Playing Rodgers has no long-term value for the Jets.
New York’s season is over. Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, or whoever, play the strings. The Cleveland Browns, who play the Jets in Week 17, will no doubt appreciate that.