Who could have predicted that the question of whether the Chicago Bears should take a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick or a soldier in Justin Fields would become eternal content?
A year after trading the No. 1 overall pick and the final rights to Bryce Young in the 2023 NFL Draft to the Panthers, the Bears are in a similar position with three games left in the regular season as a result of that trade.acquired will Currently ranked 1st overall.
Here are Chicago’s options for the No. 1 overall pick.
Should the Bears trade Justin Fields and draft a quarterback?
Why would Chicago keep Justin Fields?
His play this season gives me a little more confidence in his abilities going forward. But was that enough to tip the scales in his favor? The NFC North franchise could keep their young quarterback and try to build on the momentum they established over the past month by winning three of their last five games. In that scenario, they could either select their best non-quarterback player with the No. 1 overall pick or trade out the pick for the second year in a row. The defensive line in particular has high expectations for the second half of the season after acquiring Montez Sweat. If the offense can catch up, the Bears should be able to move up quickly in a relatively open NFC.
So, again, why would Chicago trade Justin Fields?
First, he was not drafted by either general manager Ryan Pauls or head coach Matt Eberflus. They have no relationship with the quarterback except for the past year they spent together. Fields, who is nearing the end of his third season, was drafted 11th overall. He has 60% of his rookie contract expired, assuming the fifth-year option is used.
Ohio State’s numbers shined in his first two seasons in the NFL, but they were wildly inconsistent. Fields missed about a month this season due to injury, but it was valuable time for both sides to learn if they could form a fruitful long-term partnership. If his potential as a long-term starter isn’t clear and obvious, wouldn’t the franchise be better off acquiring another cost-controlled five-year rookie quarterback? A lot is at stake in the team’s final three games against Arizona, Atlanta and Green Bay. If Fields plays well and the team still decides to trade him, there will likely be more interest in his services on the trade market, which will be reflected in Chicago’s potential trade revenue. .
The fear Bears fans have about trading Fields is that he might go elsewhere and succeed while the new quarterback doesn’t perform as well as expected. It’s a gamble.
What’s unclear is how Chicago’s leadership feels about Fields and future quarterback prospects. Therefore, we cannot completely exclude the possibility of going in a different direction. If there’s a clear upgrade at the vacant position, the Bears will likely go down that path.
Who would be interested in Fields and how much would it cost?
In this hypothetical, Chicago took the quarterback No. 1 overall. With one of the top two quarterback prospects (USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye) out of the lineup, New England, Las Vegas, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and potentially Quarterback-needy teams like Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Seattle will be in contention. Remaining available players. LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy, and Fields fall into the next category of upwardly trending quarterbacks.
The aforementioned teams that were unable to acquire one of these two rookie QBs could be interested in Fields.
How much would it cost the team to acquire the Bears’ quarterback?
There hasn’t been a long history of a prospect as naturally gifted as Fields being traded three years into his rookie contract. A few veterans like Carson Wentz, Sam Bradford, and Alex Smith were acquired well into their careers in trades for a first-round pick and a second-day pick. Chicago is unlikely to get a pick in the top half of the first round, so it’s more likely they’ll get a late first-round pick or some second-day picks.
What would happen if the Bears traded the No. 1 overall pick?
Since the Rams selected quarterback Jared Goff 15th overall in 2016, the No. 1 overall pick had not been traded until last year. The No. 1 overall pick has been traded once since 2000, when Atlanta traded the No. 2 overall pick to Virginia Tech quarterback Michael Vick in 2001.
There have been several recent examples of teams making trades to acquire quarterbacks, but none of them are “apples to apples” examples.
- In 2016, Philadelphia moved up from No. 8 overall to No. 2 overall to have the right to select Carson Wentz from North Dakota State. The Browns acquired a first- and second-round pick, as well as a third- and fourth-round pick the following year.
- In 2017, Chicago moved up from No. 3 overall to No. 2 overall. In exchange, San Francisco received a third-round pick in 2018, a fourth-round pick, and a third-round pick in 2018. The Bears used that pick to acquire Mitchell Trubisky from North Carolina.
- In trading Goff, Los Angeles gave up two first-round picks, two second-round picks and two third-round picks, including the 15th overall pick in 2016. The University of Tennessee also received a fourth-round pick and a sixth-round pick.
- In 2021, Miami received a total of three first-round picks from San Francisco, including the 12th overall pick and a third-round pick, in exchange for the No. 3 overall pick.
- In 2023, Chicago acquired two first-round picks, including the No. 9 overall pick, two second-round picks, and star wide receiver DJ Moore in exchange for the No. 1 overall pick.
Basic economics teaches the principles of supply and demand. When supply is low and demand is high, costs are also very high. Approximately 10 teams play musical chairs using four or five chairs.
SportsLine.com’s RJ White created a modern trade value chart a few years ago and gave 1,000 points to No. 1 overall. The No. 2 overall pick has a score of 695.80 points, so it should be easy to see the value of the No. 1 pick.
Since 2010, there have been 12 trades made on draft boards for quarterbacks. In each of the 13 trades, the team that traded the quarterback’s rights received a compensation greater than the pick’s worth. On average, teams that trade their top picks gain a +243.92 point differential, which is equivalent to the 19th overall pick. In four of the 13 trades, the team that stepped up to acquire a quarterback sent back a top-five pick in the next draft.
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