Written by Michael Fillis and Camille Fassett
Associated Press
ST. LOUIS — Floods have forced millions of people from their homes and destroyed some prosperous areas, according to a new study detailing how climate change and flooding are changing where Americans live. It has become clear that the growth of some communities is being restricted and the decline of others is accelerating.
In the first two decades of the 21st century, the threat of flooding caused more than 7 million people to avoid dangerous areas or avoid dangerous areas, according to a paper published Monday in the journal Nature Communications and a study by the risk analysis organization First Street. They say they were persuaded to abandon the dangerous area. Foundation.
Climate change is causing more violent hurricanes and more rain in the Midwest. And in the coming decades, researchers say millions more people will decide such changes are intolerable and leave.
First Street found that climate change is creating winners and losers at the neighborhood and block level.
Zooming out and looking at the country as a whole, Americans seem to be ignoring the threat of climate change when deciding where to live. Florida, for example, is vulnerable to rising sea levels and strong storms, but is growing rapidly. But that ignores the important point of how people behave on the ground. Most trips are short distances. People stay close to family, friends, and work.
“There’s more to this story than population growth in Sunbelt states,” said Jeremy Porter, director of research at First Street.
“People want to live in Miami,” he says. “If you already live in Miami, you don’t say, ‘Oh, this property is a 9 out of 10 for flood risk, so let’s move to Denver.'” They say, “This property is a 9 out of 10 for flood risk. But I would say, “I want to live in Miami, so I’m going to look for a 6 or a 7 or a 5 in Miami.” It makes you think about relative risks. ”
That’s what First Street predicts for the next 30 years. Blocks in Miami that are more likely to be hit by severe storms are likely to experience a decline in population, even though much of the city is expected to absorb more people.
Behind these findings is highly detailed data on flood risk, population trends, and reasons for people’s movement, and researchers believe that local economic conditions and other factors may influence families moving elsewhere. Even if people are motivated to live there, they can isolate the effects of flooding. They analyzed population changes in very small areas, down to census blocks.
Some blocks are growing rapidly and would have grown even faster if flooding wasn’t an issue, according to First Street. If that risk were lower, the expanding but flood-prone area could have grown by nearly 25 percent more and attracted about 4.1 million more people. The researchers also identified areas where flood risk is causing or exacerbating population declines, calling them “climate abandonment areas.” Approximately 3.2 million people have left these areas over the past 20 years due to the risk of flooding.
When First Street projected through 2053, many of the new climate abandonment areas were in Michigan, Indiana, and other parts of the Midwest. Philip Mulder, a professor of risk and insurance at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said flood risk is just one factor driving this change, and it’s not creating empty homes in communities.
“People can live in smarter places within these communities,” he said. “That’s as true of Detroit as it is of Miami.”
People are less likely to buy a home if they know it is prone to flooding. But some states don’t require disclosure of flood history, said Joel Scata, a senior attorney with the Natural Resources Defense Council’s climate adaptation team.
“Access to good information is very important in the real estate market,” Scata says.
Even for those receiving assistance with transportation, the choice can be excruciating. In Socastee, a community near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, flooding occurs not only during hurricanes, but also sometimes during heavy rains, allowing water to reach doorways and flood yards. According to First Street data, Horry County won’t grow as fast over the next 30 years because of the risk of flooding.
One resident, who has endured repeated floods, said she felt anxious and “sick” every time a storm hit.
Terry Straka decided to move out of the area, but had a hard time convincing his parents to do the same. Eventually, she took them to a home for sale outside the area, which she said could be their dream home. They reluctantly agreed to move.
“Being able to visualize what the future will look like is absolutely critical for people to be able to move,” said Executive Director of the Anthropocene Alliance, which supports communities like Socastee that are affected by disasters and climate change. Director Harriet Festing says. “They need to imagine a location, and it needs to be a realistic location that they can afford.”
Matt Hauer, a demographic expert and researcher, said older people move less often and moving is more expensive, so when people don’t have enough support or the means to do so, , authors from Florida State University, are more likely to stay in dangerous areas. Once people do start moving, he said, it could create momentum for others to move in, leaving fewer residents to support shrinking local economies.
But there are also winners. Detroit, Chicago, Louisville, Kentucky, and several other large cities have little risk of flooding and lots of space, which makes them attractive for the future, First Street found.
Mulder said cities like Chicago “should not underestimate the relative benefits of becoming a safer place in a warming world.”
Editor’s note: Facet reported from San Francisco.