Fantasy football analyst Sal Vetri uses this space to give you the keys to victory each week of the 2023 NFL season.
Discovery #1: This week’s best (RB) spot belongs to Aaron Jones.
He returned in Week 15, but with some limitations. Jones only played 50% of the Packers’ snaps, but he was earning touches when he was on the field. Jones totaled 17 touches for 69 yards in a tough game against the Bucs.
This week, he found himself in the best position this week to be the favorite to win against the Panthers. Carolina is allowing the third-most points and fifth-most yards to opposing running backs this season. The Panthers also yield the league’s best efficiency to running backs, with Jones ranking in the top 10 in running back efficiency this year. Jones is expected to have a bigger role this week as he returns to health and the Packers battle injuries in their receiver room (more on that later).
Discovery #2: This week’s Dangerous Spot belongs to Tony Pollard
Pollard had a down game in Week 15, but that was largely due to the script of the game. Pollard was fairly efficient on the ground, gaining 52 yards on 11 carries, but was used infrequently as the Cowboys played from behind. Pollard ranks 39th in running back efficiency this year.
He’s in a delicate position this week as he’s outmatched against the Dolphins’ No. 2-ranked run defense. Miami has allowed minimal production from their running backs over the past month of the season. Last week, we saw the extremely talented Breece Hall gain just 12 yards on six carries. The week before that, Derrick Henry totaled 34 yards on 17 carries. This defense has allowed just 2.5 yards per carry into opposing backfields over the last month. Expectations for Pollard will be tempered in Week 16.
Discovery #3: This week’s Pick & Play is Parker Washington
Washington scored six goals in Week 15. He has now scored six goals in two of his last three games, giving him good chemistry with Trevor Lawrence. This is important since Zai Jones was sidelined in Week 15 with an apparent hamstring injury. will reportedly sit down. Washington is scheduled to start for the Jaguars starting in Week 16.
His matchup makes him a pick-up and play option. Washington will face the Bucs, who allow the third-most production to opposing receivers. We saw this last week when Jaden Reed and Dontaevion Wicks each scored over 12 fantasy points. The fifth-round rookie is in a great spot this week. In a favorable matchup, his team has the fourth-highest pitching percentage in the league.
Trevor Lawrence has reportedly cleared concussion protocol and is expected to play, so he could start for Washington.
Dameon Pierce returned from injury in Week 12 and we saw this backfield splinter once again. However, things changed in Week 14, with Singletary getting his 13 carries while Pierce only had his four. This usage divide widened further last week.
Singletary played 75% of the snaps and got 30 touches, while Dameon Pierce had just one touch. Despite heavy usage, Singletary was very efficient, averaging 5.6 yards per touch and 170 total yards. This is his second game this season with over 160 yards. In Week 16, he will take over the Browns’ injured run defense. Singletary is the starter this week.
Discovery #5: This week’s return is Ezekiel Elliott
Elliott started his second straight game in Week 15, replacing the injured Rhondre Stephenson. After a 140-yard performance in Week 14, Elliott struggled in Week 15 against Kansas City. Zeke had 16 touches for a total of 46 yards. His work wasn’t great, but his usage was. Elliott commanded 88% of the snaps and over 70% of the backfield carries. This usage would have been even higher, but he was pulled late in the game. Rhamondre Stevenson was sidelined for Week 16.
Elliott has an even better matchup this week. He will take on a Denver run defense that has a top-five rating in opposing backfields this season. In Week 15, the Broncos allowed 185 rushing yards to Jahmil Gibbs and David Montgomery. The Patriots are losing by 7.5 points, so expect Zeke to stay involved in the receiving game. He has scored 14 goals in the last two games.
Discovery #6: Start Darren Waller, but watch carefully how he is used.
Waller returned in Week 15, but was expected to be limited in this game. This is exactly what we saw happen when Waller ran less than 50% of the Giants’ routes against the Saints. But here’s the good news. Waller was targeted 18% of the time in his first match against Tommy DeVito. This placed him second on the team behind Darius Slayton, where he ran 50% more routes than Waller.
Waller’s usage will continue to be watched. He will play against the Eagles in Week 16. Philadelphia runs a high-volume defense, which is good news for Waller. He would have a built-in advantage against the Eagles’ linebackers, the weakest part of Philadelphia’s defense. I’m starting Waller this week.
Discovery #7: Lean on the Denver Broncos D/ST.
The Broncos’ defense was available for over 50% of league starts that week. They allowed 42 points to the Lions, but it was a brutal matchup for them. Denver’s secondary has been a top-10 unit over the past two months of the season. However, the run defense remains poor. It wasn’t a great matchup against Detroit’s fifth-ranked rushing offense.
However, the Broncos’ schedule for Weeks 16 and 17 is on track. They will play Bailey Zappe and Easton Stick in the next two weeks. Neither the Patriots nor the Chargers are a threat on the ground. Both rushing offenses rank near the bottom of the league, with the Chargers third-worst in the NFL. If the Broncos are lucky enough to add to their defense this week, they will be a good playoff defense for the rest of the season.
Finding #8: Consider adding Joe Flacco from the waiver wire.
While Flacco is great in a fantasy world, he also manages to do well in real life. He has led the NFL in pass interceptions since becoming the Browns’ starter, but has completed just 58 percent of his passes. But he has had some wins and is doing well enough to remain Cleveland’s starter.
In three starts for the Browns, Flacco is averaging 313 yards per game and seven total touchdowns. This week, he took over the Texans’ secondary, recently throwing for 301 yards to Zach Wilson and completing 75% of his passes, allowing him to be the AFC Player of the Week. You can stream Joe Elite this week.
Discovery #9: Considering Dontaevion Wicks in Deep League
The Packers are treating injuries in the receiver room. Christian Watson is questionable with a hamstring issue and Jaden Reed missed practice this week with a toe and his chest injury. Wicks could have an even bigger role in Week 16 against the Panthers. He is expected to play through his ankle injury.
Wicks is a fifth-round rookie out of Virginia. He broke out at age 20 with a 1,200-yard season and nine scores. His role with the Packers has increased over the past month. His routes have increased over the past four weeks, with him averaging 5.3 goals during this period. Wicks had a career-high 97 yards in Week 15. He would be a deep league option if either Watson or Reed are out this week.
Finding #10: Dalton Kincaid is on the decline.
Dawson Knox returned in Week 14, but it did not appear to affect Kincaid’s role. Kincaid still completed more than 85 percent of the Bills’ routes and had seven targets. But in Week 15, his usage changed. Kincaid ran only 65% of his routes and got two targets, while Knox’s routes increased to about 50%.
Buffalo turned on its first run-heavy game script of the season. Josh Allen pitched only 15 innings. I’m not trying to panic here, but it’s worth noting that Dawson Knox’s usage increased after a week out from injury. This is an unusual performance from Buffalo’s offense. I won’t draw any sweeping conclusions here, but I will keep an eye on Week 16.