Fantasy football analyst Sal Vetri uses this space to give you the keys to victory each week of the 2023 NFL season.
Discovery #1: This week’s best RB spot is D’Andre Swift.
A few weeks ago, there were concerns about Swift’s role in the Eagles’ offense. From Weeks 13 to 14, he played only 46% of the snaps. However, this was due to some match script failures and him getting injured late in one of those matches. The past two weeks have been a series of close games, which has made Swift’s role stronger again. He earned his 20 chances in consecutive weeks while playing 60% of the snaps during this period.
The strong usage and solid results will continue this week at home against the Cardinals. Arizona has allowed the second-most production runs to opposing running backs this season. The Eagles are currently 11-point favorites to win this game, and starting running backs in similar positions this year are averaging over 15 fantasy points.
Discovery #2: This week’s spooky RB spot belongs to Gus Edwards.
Week 16 was the Ravens’ first game since teammate Keaton Mitchell went down with a season-ending injury. Mitchell was starting to take snaps and touches from Edwards. In Week 16, Gase scored 13.5 fantasy points while gaining 70 total yards. Even though Edwards played fewer snaps than Justice Hill, he still commanded high-value red zone snaps.
But this week, he will face the Dolphins’ No. 2 ranked run defense. Miami has allowed the least rushing production in the past two months. They held Tony Pollard to just 38 scoreless yards last week and allowed just 2.7 yards per carry into opposing backfields last month. Edwards is a questionable option come championship week.
Discovery #3: This week’s Pick and Play is Chigoziem Okonkwo
Okonkwo has been hot lately. He was coming off his best game of the year in Week 16, catching all six of his targets for 63 yards and a score. Since Week 12, Chig has gotten nearly 20% of the Titans’ targets on him.
This week he plays against the Texans. The athletic TE has played well with Houston’s linebackers this season, and Okonkwo has elite speed and great explosiveness. The Texans are allowing the third-most production to TEs this year, so they could start Okonkwo if needed.
Discovery #4: The Las Vegas Raiders are defending their championship.
The Raiders have quietly been an elite fantasy option for the past two months of the season. No defensive unit has scored more points since Week 9, when new head coach Antonio Pierce took over. Las Vegas has scored 20 or more points in consecutive weeks.
Here’s the craziest part. They are available in 69% of the league and have some quality matchups this week. The Raiders will face a Colts offense led by Gardner Minshew. Minshew has the fourth-highest pass-interception rate this year. Start Raiders if you can.
Discovery #5: Ty Chandler is on the rise.
Chandler was a strong sleeper option in this summer’s draft. He had the most efficient preseason ever for a running back. He showed the very traits we saw in college: the ability to break tackles, great burst, and strong speed. There have been signs of his turnaround at times this year, but in Week 15 he finally returned as a mainstay for the Vikings.
Despite the return of Alexander Mattison, Chandler played 33 snaps compared to just four for Mattison. This week, Chandler will face the Packers, who have the worst run defense in the league. Opposing running backs have scored TDs in six consecutive games against the Packers. Be sure to start Chandler in week 17.
Finding #6: The Broncos’ pass catchers are on the decline.
The Broncos’ pass catchers took a big hit last week. It started in Week 16 when Cortland Sutton left with a concussion after running just two routes. This earned Brandon Johnson playing time and led the team with five goals.
Johnson and Jeudy were trending to be decent FLEX options against the Chargers in Week 17 until some big news broke Wednesday afternoon. Denver has elected QB Russell Wilson to start in the final two games of the year. Long story short, Russ is sitting for financial reasons. That means Jarrett Stidham will start. In games in which he has thrown at least 10 passes in his career, he has averaged just 5 yards per attempt. This is a downgrade for all Broncos pass catchers.
Discovery #7: Pay attention to Isaiah Pacheco’s injury situation
Pacheco left in Week 16 with a concussion. Running backs who suffer concussions this season typically miss the following week. When Pacheco left, Clyde Edwards-Helaire took his place, gaining 48 total yards on just seven touches. He only had three carries for CEH as Kansas City was on the back foot throughout the game.
But this week, the Chiefs are seven-point favorites against the Bengals. Running back Patrick Mahomes has averaged more than 14 points in his career as Kansas City entered the game as a seven-point favorite. If Pacheco is out, he could start Edwards-Helaire in Week 17.
Discovery #8: James Cook will bounce back.
Cook’s five-game streak of 100 yards or more came to an end last week against the Chargers. However, despite failing to reach the 100-yard mark, Cook still earned elite usage, playing a season-best 73% of the snaps and winning 80% of the backfield carries.
Cook will look to bounce back this week as a 13-point favorite against the Patriots. He last played in New England in Week 7, when he totaled 102 yards and one score. The Patriots recently allowed 100 total yards to Edwards-Helaire, who isn’t as efficient as Cook. Cook ranks fourth in yards per touch this season, so expect to see action in Week 17.
Discovery #9: Don’t forget Jaden Reed
Reed did not practice at all last week before being sidelined with a toe injury. But he was able to practice in a limited capacity on Wednesday and Thursday, so he’s trending in the right direction this week.
Teammate Christian Watson has not yet practiced due to a hamstring issue and has not practiced in nearly four weeks. This opens the door once again for Reid to serve as the Packers’ WR1. Reid has a 22% target share in his last four healthy games and has done everything he wants to do: score touchdowns, create explosive plays and generate volume. Start if the lead is active.
Discovery #10: Another Alpha Performance by Nico Collins
CJ Stroud had a full practice Thursday and is likely to play. This is good news for Collins, who returned last week but ran only 45% of his routes. He was limited in his first game back from injury, but had a full practice Thursday and is expected to be a full participant this week.
Collins will play in Week 17 against the Titans, who have allowed the most production to outside receivers this season. Two weeks ago, they allowed Collins’ teammate Noah Brown (under center Case Keenum) over 80 yards and a touchdown. Collins is a priority this week.