On September 14, 2023, U.S. State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller issued a statement on the third anniversary of the Abraham Accords. “Tomorrow marks the third anniversary of the signing of the historic Abraham Accords. Normalization between our allies in the region has been transformative for Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco,” the statement said. This was an important anniversary. A month later, after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, concerns arose about how it would affect the success of the new peace relationship.
The United States wanted to invest in the agreement and expand it. But Iran wanted the opposite. He wanted to prevent normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The United States said in September that it continues to firmly support a “peaceful, secure, and prosperous Middle East.” There were other movements before the October War. For example, there was talk of a new trade route linking India and Europe via the Middle East. This will build on her I2U2 partnership in India, Israel, UAE and USA.
Challenges facing the Abraham Accords
But even before October 7, there were signs that the Abraham Accords were facing challenges. For example, the Negev Forum, which was supposed to unite Israel with the UAE, Bahrain, Jordan, Egypt, Morocco, and other countries, is not going as planned. Many of these countries had concerns about Israel’s new government, which was established in December 2022.
The spring of 2023 also presented other challenges. Attacks by the Iranian-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad have increased in the West Bank. This was planned by Iran to draw Israel into further fighting and create tension in the region. It is now known that Hamas’ broader plan was to take advantage of the political turmoil within Israel to launch a major attack. Iran’s goals in the region were even broader. They wanted to reset the regional order and use Hamas attacks to force the US out of the region, isolate Israel, and even bring Russia and China to the side of the Iranian “axis” of various groups, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran. . Houthis and militias in Iraq and Syria.
These are the challenges facing Abraham Accord countries. Because of the war, almost all high-level visits and public meetings were canceled. Israel also changed its foreign minister at the start of the new year. A visit by an Israeli politician to most of the Abraham Accords countries will likely be seen in a different light than before October 7th.
This is unfortunate because Iran’s role in expanding Hamas’ extremism and regional instability is exactly what the deal was supposed to prevent. The deal was not intended to be against Iran, but rather to bring together countries seeking stability, countries that wanted to invest in technology rather than in extremism. Countries such as the UAE and Bahrain have made significant progress in embracing coexistence in the region.
But last year, it became clear that despite the best-laid plans, there were spoilers. For example, Sudan is currently embroiled in a civil war. There were also high expectations for relations with Sudan and Israel. One of the problems is that there is not enough investment and focus on the Abraham Accords and its expansion.Another effect of the October 7 attack is that it raises questions about security in the region. Israel and its new peace partners wanted to create a better security framework. For example, Israel is now part of U.S. Central Command. The US 5th Fleet is based in Bahrain. There are many opportunities for defense discussions and defense training in the region. But the war in Gaza means the Israeli military will not be training with its new peace partner anytime soon. That wasn’t the case last year before the attack. Instead, there were strong calls for joint U.S.-backed exercises that would bring together countries in the region. There was even talk in the US media of joint air defense and some kind of defense agreement. From now on everything will have to wait.
The UAE has played an active role in promoting humanitarian assistance to Gaza at the United Nations. It is also providing medical aid to Gazans. Other Israeli peace partners, such as Jordan, are supporting air drops of field hospitals into Gaza. These are welcome developments. However, dark clouds have been gathering since October 7th. Jordan has strongly criticized Israel’s war against Hamas. Egypt is also angry at suggestions that Gazans may flee to Sinai. Egypt cannot tolerate any kind of destabilization as a result of the war.
War is exactly what Iran wanted. We have always known that peace and normalization agreements depend in part on reducing violence in Gaza and the West Bank. Israel was trying to manage the conflict in this regard. Iran wanted the conflict to escalate. Currently, Iran is encouraging Yemen’s Houthis and Lebanon’s Hezbollah to carry out attacks. It also spread chaos to Syria and Iraq.
All of this is contrary to the peaceful tenor of the Abraham Accords. If Gulf states and other countries want to build stability, they will also need to think about how to invest in peace in the new year, and how to reduce the extremism that Hamas attacks have sparked. . ■