The latest of many heat records broken this year puts the world on track for its hottest year on record and foreshadows what’s to come, scientists say.
New data confirms that not only was last month the hottest September on record, but it did so by a margin that stunned scientists described as “extraordinary,” “huge” and “tremendous.” exceeded.
As a result, the world is on track for its hottest year on record, with temperatures expected to be 1.4 degrees warmer than in the pre-industrial era.
This new record was just broken this year, with record highs occurring in June, July, and August.
Scientists mainly point to climate change and warn that worse things are to come. But they also believe a warmer weather pattern called El Niño and natural changes in weather are to blame.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) confirmed that the global average surface temperature reached 16.38 degrees Celsius (61.484 degrees Celsius) in September.
This figure is 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than the previous warmest September of 2020, and the biggest temperature increase since at least 1940.
This margin surprised scientists.
“It’s huge,” said Professor Ed Hawkins, a climate scientist at the University of Reading. “We shouldn’t have broken records like this.”
Piers Foster, interim chair of the government’s climate change committee, speaking in his capacity as professor of climate change at the University of Leeds, said month-to-month fluctuations from year to year were usually very small.
“So breaking the previous September record by a whopping half a degree is insane and shows that something really strange is happening in the ocean,” he said.
Greenhouse gases are warming not only the atmosphere but also the deep ocean. especially in the atlanticProfessor Forster added that changes in ocean circulation are now “bringing some of the heat from the deep ocean back to the surface and hitting us.”
C3S Deputy Director Dr Samantha Burgess said September’s “unprecedented temperatures” had broken records in “extraordinary amounts”.
With two months to go until the next global climate conference, COP28, to be held in Dubai in December, Dr Burgess added: “The urgency of ambitious climate action has never been more important.” .
The sea was also hot
Today’s findings are based on billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft, and weather stations around the world.
They confirmed that sea surface temperatures also rose sharply in September, reaching the second-highest temperature on record after August 2023.
Scientists also Record of low sea ice area in Antarcticaconfirmed that C3S will continue until September.
supplying fuel I worry that climate change is finally catching up with me. The continent was once thought to be relatively shielded.
Why was September and this summer so hot around the world?
Part of the heat is due to a natural switch from a cool El Niña period to a warmer El Niño period in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean around July, which affects temperatures around the world.
However, although many factors are involved, including natural variations from year to year, scientists believe the main culprit is climate change.
Professor Forster said: “We believe this is caused by a combination of factors, primarily greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high.” But he said there may be something else going on that “we don’t fully understand yet.”
According to the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, human activity has increased global temperatures by about 1.1 degrees Celsius since before the industrial revolution.
“What we’re seeing this year is that there’s a bump on top of it,” Professor Hawkins said, adding that this could be “due to other factors such as El Niño and other weather patterns.” said.
“But the biggest factor by far is the fact that burning fossil fuels has added so many greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.”
Professor Hawkins said record-breaking heat every month was not necessarily a sign that the climate crisis was accelerating, but rather a harbinger of what the future holds as global warming continues.
He added that this summer’s extreme weather events, such as fires in the Mediterranean, floods in New York and a heatwave in the UK, will become “more frequent and sadly the norm”.
He said climate change is making flooding worse because warmer air can hold more water, leading to more rainfall.
It also makes naturally occurring heat waves even hotter, contributing to hot, dry conditions and allowing wildfires to spread quickly, even if they are started by something unrelated. he added.
October mini heatwave
The unseasonably warm weather is expected to continue into this weekend, with one forecaster predicting an “Indian summer.”
The average maximum and minimum temperatures in the UK in October are 13.8°C and 6.4°C, respectively, and 14.7°C and 7.5°C in southern England.
The Met Office said high temperatures could reach 27C (80.6F) this weekend as “unseasonably warm air” moves from the south across the UK, but in Gravesend, Kent, in 2011. The record of 29.9℃ is not expected to be broken. broken.
“For much of the south, Saturday will be a sunny and dry day with highs of around 25 degrees, unusually warm for this time of year,” the forecaster said.
“By Sunday, it will be a drier, sunny day for many people. Highs could reach around 26C, with isolated places as high as 27C.”
The Japan Meteorological Agency’s long-term forecast for October states, “Temperatures are expected to be close to or slightly above normal throughout the period.
“We may see a slightly drier and calmer period until the middle of this month.
“Temperatures are expected to generally be above normal for October.”
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