Yao Yang, dean of economics at a top Chinese university, told reporters in late September that China was not headed for Japan-style stagnation because the government was behind the recent real estate recession. Ta. This not only means that the recent economic downturn is temporary, but also that China’s high savings rate, application of artificial intelligence, and superior capabilities in renewable energy support the country’s long-term potential. He said that it shows that. “I think we should compare China with Japan in the 1970s, because after the 1964 Tokyo Olympics, Japan entered a period of high economic growth… which lasted for 30 years,” Yao said in Mandarin. , translated by CNBC. He heads Peking University’s National Development School.Although the claim may sound bold, Bernstein published a September article entitled “Long-term perspective: China’s ‘Japanification’? — Not really.” A similar view was expressed in a memo dated the 29th. Despite similarities with Japan in the 1990s, such as an aging population and declining consumer confidence, there are many differences in China today, says Rupal Agarwal, director and Asia quantitative strategist at Bernstein. is writing. For example, China’s urbanization rate in 2022 will be 64%, which is the same as Japan’s urbanization rate in the 1960s, he said, noting that Japan’s urbanization rate in the 1990s was much higher at 77%. China also leads in innovation based on research and development spending as a percentage of sales, the report said. “While there are no easy or quick solutions to China’s economic challenges, we believe there are still plenty of ways to restore a broad recovery,” he said, adding that there is a need for increased urbanization and local government-led debt. He pointed out that the central government’s support for the problem could be cited. That’s easier said than done, especially as debt and urban development are linked to a slump in the real estate sector, which accounts for about a quarter of China’s economy. Mr. Bernstein’s Mr. Agarwal did not name any stocks in his September 29 report, but he did highlight some Chinese stocks that were rated buys in a separate report that month — high-growth stocks at 5-year valuations. It’s still cheap compared to. Here are his three listed stocks that don’t have price targets: BYD — Bernstein is a mainland-traded Chinese electric vehicle giant trying to become a global auto exporter. The company’s stocks are listed on the stock market. The stock price has fallen about 7.5% since the beginning of the year. Estun Automation — Shenzhen-listed Estun sells robots and components for factory automation. The stock is up nearly 2% so far this year, but trades at about half of its all-time high set in 2021. Meituan, a major Chinese food delivery company listed in Hong Kong, has been struggling this year along with the rest of the Hong Kong market. 38% decrease. The company reported a 33% year-over-year increase in second-quarter sales, during which it turned a profit from a loss. However, economic analysis and market forecasting remain in the realm of theory. After a summer of growing concerns about China’s growth prospects, KKR’s head of global macro, Henry McVeigh, has visited the region again. Compared to his visit earlier this year, people had a better understanding of property issues this time, he said in an interview Thursday. He added that the further away consumers are from the zero-corona era, the more their confidence will increase. “Personally, this was a really important trip because it gave me a better understanding of how the economy is changing and the structural factors,” he said. He noted that China is seeking to reduce carbon emissions and increase the integration of technology into the economy, including through automation. According to KKR, two broad categories, the “green” economy and the “digital” economy, are growing rapidly, contributing 1.6 percentage points and 3.1 percentage points, respectively, to China’s GDP growth last year, while real estate The impact was 3.7 percentage points. Estimates released last week. China’s GDP rose 3% last year under pressure from coronavirus-related restrictions that ended in December. Last week, Citi raised its forecast for China’s gross domestic product (GDP) this year to 5%, near the national target. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.