Are Turkiye-Bahrain relations ready for a new chapter?
The normalization between Turkiye and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries that began in early 2021 has had a transformative impact on Turkey’s relations with the region. However, Bahrain is the least mentioned state when Turkiye-GCC relations are discussed. Compared to Ankara’s relations with other Gulf states, relations with Bahrain did not develop significantly during this normalization phase, as the two countries do not yet have solid political, economic, and defense cooperation.
However, Turkish Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmus visited Bahrain on Monday. After leaving Bahrain, Kurtulmus made an official visit to the UAE and opened a branch of Turkish defense giant Aselsan in Abu Dhabi. Unlike Bahrain, relations between Ankara and the UAE are rapidly improving on both the economic and defense fronts. For example, Abu Dhabi signed a free trade agreement with Ankara and purchased Bayraktar TB2 drones from Turkish manufacturer Baikal.
Kurtulmus noted that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will also visit the UAE this month. This will be the fifth meeting between Turkish and Emirati leaders in the past year. It remains to be seen whether Bahrain will join the UAE in line with Erdogan’s itinerary. He announced that he would visit Bahrain in November 2022, which would have been his first visit since 2017, but this visit did not materialize.
In the wake of last year’s presidential and parliamentary elections, Turkiye policymakers developed a new approach entitled “Turkiye Century.” In doing so, and reflecting the importance of the Gulf states, President Erdoğan embarked on a tour of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE in July. The trip is of both symbolic and strategic importance, as several agreements were signed between Turkiye and Gulf states aimed at diversifying the economy, countering security threats and strengthening its role in the region. there were. Bahrain was not included.
The development of relations between Ankara and Manama was negatively affected by the 2017 Gulf crisis and the 2020 Abraham Accords.
Sinem Cengiz
Kurtulmus’ visits to Manama and Abu Dhabi were therefore significant in terms of timing and discussion. The Bahrain visit could mark the beginning of a potential new chapter in Turkish-Bahrain relations and could lay the foundation for future high-level visits by the Turkish side.
Bahrain’s King Hamad became the first Arab leader to visit Ankara following the July 2016 coup attempt. King Hamad’s visit to Ankara in 2016 and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to Manama in 2017 resulted in the signing of numerous agreements on defense, diplomacy, education, and economic cooperation. However, the evolving Ankara-Manama relationship was negatively affected by the 2017 Gulf crisis and the 2020 Abraham Accords.
However, diplomatic contacts between Ankara and Manama continue. Former Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Çavuşoğlu made an official visit to Bahrain for two days in January 2022. This was followed in March 2022 by a visit by then Turkiye Finance Minister Noureddin Nevati. Last year, Bahrain was among the GCC countries that sent relief supplies and aid teams to Turkiye and Syria, which were hit by devastating earthquakes. Bahraini citizens also made donations in solidarity with Turks and Syrians. Additionally, Turkiye Ambassador in Manama Esin Cakir has been instrumental in fostering relations between the two countries, with a focus on business and cultural cooperation.
If high-level issues such as security and defense cooperation are not at a promising level in international diplomacy, states can instead move forward by focusing on low-level politics such as cultural and economic cooperation. Bahrain already hosts a branch of the Yunus Emre Institute, one of the most effective cultural institutions in Turkiye, promoting the learning of the Turkish language and cultural norms around the world. The institute currently only has branches in the Gulf region, in Qatar and Bahrain.
It has become important for Bahrain to diversify its partnerships with regional powers, especially in terms of defense and trade.
Sinem Cengiz
It has become important for Bahrain to diversify its partnerships with regional powers, particularly in defense and trade. Relatively few energy resources and limited markets and savings make it the smallest and most vulnerable economy among the GCC countries. Therefore, the issue of diversification is extremely important for the national economy. Although the volume of trade between Turkiye and Bahrain is not comparable to other Gulf countries, Ankara has the opportunity to access new energy sources, both hydrocarbons and renewables, through its relationship with Bahrain, while Manama has It can attract Turkish investment.
Despite the relatively undeveloped level of economic relations, Turkish-Bahrain relations have important security aspects. In recent years, Turkiye’s defense industry has increased its sales to Gulf countries, so this could be an area for Bahrain to deepen cooperation with Turkiye. While the United States occupies a key position in Bahrain’s security and economic cooperation, Turkiye is an important regional actor that has served as a counterweight in the Gulf for decades.
It is extremely important for Ankara to increase the number of friends in the Gulf region. It has pursued specific policies for each of the GCC member states according to their different interests. Bahrain, like other GCC member states, recognizes significant threats to its stability and security, including, inter alia, the rise of a hegemonic Iran, the increased risk of terrorism, and the potential for instability as a result of terrorism. Because of this, there is a possibility that he will try to deepen his relationship with Tolkie. Great power competition. The Iranian factor is a particularly important determinant of Bahrain’s foreign policy.
Considering the new realities of regional politics in the post-normalization era, relations between Turkiye and Manama are likely to improve, even if they ultimately do not reach the level of relations between Ankara and other GCC countries. Needs improvement.
• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst specializing in Turkiye relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz
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