There are some people in this world who deep down want to do something different. Perhaps it is art, music, and other glorious pastimes that the rest of humanity has benefited from far more than they paid for. It’s interesting to see what kind of cars these types of people drive. Usually something quirky or wonderfully weird. Neil Young drove an old hearse for years before he made it big, with various drugs taped to the bottom of the dashboard.
And some people think completely differently. Purely aesthetically speaking, a thinker who just wants to make things better. Their inner guiding light is efficiency. I had a genius uncle, a farm boy who reached high levels in the national security field in Ottawa through sheer ingenuity and no formal education. He loved to explain how by driving carefully, methodically, and at a controlled speed, he was able to get 70 miles per gallon. – He limited himself around Ottawa in his small car, happily ignoring Type A heads exploding in his rearview mirror.
Most people fall somewhere in between, and it’s a very comfortable space for most of humanity, neither artists nor efficiency freaks. We like nice things and we like how they look, but we also value practicality. We want to be different! But hey, that’s weird. And I want to drive with everyone! Even if it is becoming increasingly difficult for young people today to afford it, the desire still exists if finances permit.
This overwhelmingly dominant characteristic can derail the two extreme camps, making the battle fierce and vivid in the auto industry. Our car choices are intentional or not, and whether we want them to be or not, because nothing judges a person more easily than their car preferences.
It is a reality that those who want to change the world must accept. This is a very hard thing to swallow, especially for logicians who can make near-perfect arguments about why one choice is clearly better than another. Yet people will look you in the eye and do the opposite. (A long time ago, when minivans were well-regarded as convenient and comfortable vehicles, and when the nasty stigma against minivan ownership was starting to take root, I remember a friend of a friend standing less than 5 feet tall and standing on a mountain. I saw her trying to wrestle her bike onto the SUV’s roof rack (yes, yes, I helped too), and as she did so, she said, “What I really need is a minivan, but I don’t want one.” What will people think of me if I drive?”
The minivan vs. SUV comparison was emblematic of the great power that the middle 80 percent has in shaping how things go, to the extent that personal choice is allowed (I hope I’m not mocking that). If so, see below). His 2035 all-EV mandate by the federal government). Being narrow-minded and childish, I was filled with disdain when I saw people not optimizing such expensive purchases at the altar of “what others think of me.”
I’m still petty and childish, but I’ve gained enough miles behind the wheel to realize that things aren’t that simple, and even if they are, what people choose and why they do it. I know that the choice I make has little to do with me. Some people care about resale value. Some people prefer the colors available. Some people like the feel of the steering wheel, the comfort of the seats, and the look of the front grille. so what.
Even for automakers, this is no easy task. Because not only do people actually make car purchasing decisions based on ridiculously small features, but the lead time for consumer preferences to shift in a new direction can be much shorter than it actually takes. Because there is. To develop new vehicles. For example, large fluctuations in gas prices can lead to either a preference for or aversion to fuel-efficient small cars, but it will take manufacturers several years to fully reflect this.
That’s what makes the EV “migration” so attractive. If there’s one thing that’s glaringly clear throughout this topic, it’s that people never buy what they “should” buy. You cannot understand whims and motives because they come from unpredictable external influences. If Taylor Swift suddenly started driving a black Toyota Corolla sedan, what do you think would happen to the sales of black Toyota Corolla sedans? The gray ones aren’t selling, but oh no! What am I, crazy? Who would die in such an incident?
So right now, especially here in Canada, but also in many other jurisdictions, including California, drivers are not allowed to buy new cars that are not EVs, and manufacturers are not allowed to sell anything that is not an EV. It is being said.
Manufacturers are doing their part and nervously announcing EV after EV. They advertise crappy cars, automotive publications dutifully test and review them, and the media reports that when monthly sales go from his three cars to his four, model sales jump by, say, 33 percent. I will hold my breath and report on the situation.
The media also jumped on stories about the huge pent-up demand and how there were thousands of orders and deposits for new models about to hit showrooms. In 2021, this kind of news was widely circulated.Ford F-150 Lightning pre-orders end after nearly 200,000 reservations”, or Motor Trend’s “Ford receives orders for more than 44,500 F-150 Lightnings in 48 hours”.
Think about how great that purchase order is. There is so much interest that a mass-market manufacturer like Ford announces loudly and loudly, “Sorry, we can no longer take your order. Our success has been too overwhelming.” There is only one. Many manufacturers reported similar order history hysteria.
This story turned out to be surreal, but not as much as I expected. Through 2022, Ford sold just 15,617 electric pickups. The 2022 earnings headlines remain starry-eyed and bland.Ford triples BEV sales in December, doubles by 2022”, but could not sustain the infantile enthusiasm that had been stored for the second half of 2023.Ford F-150 Lightning sets monthly sales record, doubling in November”.
Although sales in November 2023 were indeed “double” compared to November of the previous year, Ford sold just 11,905 vehicles for the entire quarter. In his two years after a bumper crop of future orders, Ford only sold about 40,000 of his F-150 Lightnings. 2 years. Ford recently announced that its production plans for 2024 will be cut in half to about 1,600 vehicles per week, or just under 7,000 vehicles per month.
Remember that Ford was sold in 2023 750,000 The F-150 internal combustion engine pickup is popular in the U.S., mostly aimed at city dwellers for whom an EV pickup makes a lot of sense – people who rarely leave the city. Much more suitable for urban environments where you can self-drive home (and safely travel to a warm and comfortable dedicated charging station each night).
So we go back to consumer behavior. No amount of flattery or “right thinking” can overcome this mysterious and certainly infuriating human trait. “200,000 reservations!” “Significantly cut production forecasts!” in half. It is the most popular vehicle variant in the United States.
Tesla still dominates EV sales, and when many people decide they want an EV, that means they want a Tesla (in the pickup world, Rivian could become the Tesla of EV pickups). Well, only time will tell). Major automakers are having a very difficult time growing EV sales to a level that approaches profitability.
If you can or should feel bad about big corporations, it’s hard not to feel bad about them. If 200,000 consumers say, “Yes, I want it,” but 80% change their minds by the time Ford can actually build it, how on earth are you going to plan for next year?
But observe. What the government is whispering in manufacturers’ ears is, “Don’t worry, we’re going to legally phase out the internal combustion engine. Just build it and it will come…” Yes, but the evidence to support it is not very clear. “Because they have no choice.” Well, that worked in the Soviet Union for a while, right?
Further complicating matters for manufacturers, elections are coming up in the United States (this year) and Canada (which feels like an eternity, but is actually only a year and a half), and EV policy developments over the past few years have been small. Or it could be significantly revised.
But forget all the uncertainty surrounding manufacturers. The human element trumps everything (I’m not kidding). This is an important realization that we all must accept. Some give us a sense of belonging with others in ways that are essential for our mental health. Some people like to wear the latest fashion. Some people get the most popular hairstyles. Some people are attracted to that word and drive rugged SUVs.
Manufacturers may stand back because something so illogical could become their biggest hit ever. But on top of that we have to layer the rotten corruption of politics. EV sales seem to be on the decline along political fault linesIn some ways, this is not surprising. One side of the political spectrum sees climate change as a moral imperative that should be addressed as quickly as possible; It has become. EV (This is another sign that “left vs. right” is a historical anachronism of little value anymore. The traditional “left” is the working class, the oppressed, the safety net Today’s primary EV buyers are wealthy enough to pursue a Tesla first and foremost, and often have multi-car garages full of options. have). EV as a political statement is another example of how our preferences, rational or not, bind us to our chosen tribes, whether in Canada or in the United States. Whether it’s Togo or Togo, it would be inhumanly difficult to change that.
The conclusion that can be drawn from this hodgepodge of observations is that the car market continues to reflect certain aspects of humanity that we ourselves may not be aware of, as well as physical, economic, and security realities/theories. They will not change in the future. Government edict. We don’t know what that means in terms of the transition to EVs, but the development of new battery technology, for example, could change that trajectory. But for now, based on examples like the Ford F-150 Lightning EV experience, it’s clear that human enthusiasm and professed care don’t always translate well to the cold reality of what people spend their money on.
It’s a delicate world. People are imperfect and beautiful, and that’s why they add color to the world. That landscape is either a more or less free place where people can express themselves as they wish, or it is a closed quasi-dictatorship or outright dictatorship where it is not allowed (censorship, overreach). laws, thought police/moralistic systematic government intervention), personal carbon budgets, etc.). The latter will never succeed because it goes against human nature. The former has elements that don’t make sense outside of your own circle of people who understand it. I choose not to belong to some tribes, but I may choose to be part of others, perhaps unconsciously, and that makes the whole thing even more complicated. .
Current politicians and WEF types believe they have a blueprint for humanity to unfold. This is absurd, if for no other reason than that they cannot understand the complex reality of the 8 billion people they are trying to force in a certain direction. They’re trying to squeeze everything into a metaphorical minivan because a minivan makes more sense than anything else. they will fail.
Conversations about energy should be positive and, above all, grounded in reality. Life depends on it. For more information, see The End of Fossil Fuel Madness. Amazon, indigo.caor Amazon. thank you!
Read Terry Etam’s insightful analysis here or email Terry here.