Bahraini regime accounts and profits
The streets of Bahrain expressed strong dissatisfaction with various positions involving the country in military operations alongside the United States, leading to widespread demonstrations.
Notably, the opposition was not limited to traditional Shi’a forces but also included influential Sunni figures who typically distance themselves from Shi’a opposition activities. Hamas, an influential Muslim Brotherhood affiliate in Bahrain, has played a key role in mobilizing Sunni Muslim political forces against the Bahrain regime’s current foreign policy.
Conversely, the Bahraini regime appears to maintain a perspective that differs from the sentiment on the streets. The regime vividly recalls the events of 2011, when protests inspired by the Arab Spring posed a serious challenge to the government’s stability. It was only with the deployment of the Gulf Peninsula Shield Force that control of Al Khalifa was restored.
As a result, the Bahraini regime perceives the Shiite insurgency as a persistent strategic threat, given its significant demographic influence. This perception remains regardless of foreign policy, especially if Iran decides to use this issue to incite regime change at any time.
In the face of this strategic threat attributed to Iranian influence, the al-Khalifa regime initially relies on its alliance with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is providing critical support through its military, operating under the auspices of the Peninsula Shield Force, to maintain stability in the Bahraini monarchy in the face of potential domestic sectarian protests. The events of 2011 highlighted the crucial role Saudi intervention plays, especially when protests reach critical levels.
At the same time, the ruling family relies heavily on influential Western political and military support, particularly the American, Australian, and British forces stationed in Bahrain. These foreign forces serve as a safeguard for the Bahrain regime against direct external security and military threats emanating from Iran.
Specifically, the presence of foreign forces on Bahrain’s territory, coupled with consistency with U.S. foreign policy, is considered an essential exemption by the Bahrain regime. The deal is considered crucial for a small country located in close proximity to an expanding regional power like Iran.
Ultimately, the Bahraini regime’s policies are intricately shaped by two simultaneous factors. One is the historical opposition of the country’s Shiite class to the rule of the Sunni royal family, and the other is the growing influence of its external neighbor Iran, which has recently become more prominent and gaining power. At the local level.
Iran has consistently sought ways to support rebel groups in Bahrain. The convergence of these two factors, both internal and external, highlights why the Bahrain regime is the most concerned of the Gulf regimes regarding relations with Iran. It will also be the most vulnerable country if Iran’s influence increases.
As a result, Bahrain has emerged as the Gulf state most desperate for Western support and most likely to distance itself from diplomatic rapprochement with neighboring Iran.