introduction
Entrepreneur Eric Li Shufu’s Zhejiang Geely Holding Group (ZGH) owns Volvo Cars (OTCPK:VLVOF) (OTCPK:VLVCY), Polestar (PSNY) and many of its Geely Automobile (OTCPK:GELYY) subsidiaries. Manages multiple brands, including the .Gerif). Volvo Car and Polestar are in the US, but this article is about Geely, whose brand is not in the US. Geely Automobile is ignored in the battery electric vehicle (“BEV”) space because it is not based in the United States, it is not a pure-play BEV manufacturer, and it does not have a plug-in model that ranks in the top 10. It tends to happen. BEV growth is slowing. My theory is that Geely will continue to be a major BEV producer, despite being frequently overlooked.
F+L Magazine quotes Dr. Qingyuan Song, chief engineer for policy and regulation at Geely Powertrain, as saying that there is no future for conventional internal combustion engine (“ICE”) vehicles in China. (Emphasis) Added):
Conventional ICE vehicles have no chance of surviving in Chinasays Mr. Song. Powertrains will lose their cost advantage over BEVs after 2025he says. While the cost of battery materials continues to fall, environmental pollution and tightening global emissions regulations are driving up the cost of ICE vehicles. In 2030, BEVs are also expected to become more cost-competitive due to lower battery prices and lower usage costs. [plug-in hybrid electric vehicles] (“PHEV”). From an OEM perspective, technological innovation to achieve price and value advantages is key to meeting both consumer and government demands, he says.
Despite being ignored in the headlines, Geely already sells a large number of BEVs. Given the mindset of Dr. Song and others in the Geely ecosystem, I believe they will continue to do whatever it takes to sell more BEVs.
As of this writing, 1,000 RMB is equivalent to approximately $136.75.
overlooked
Geely Automobile also manufactures ICE vehicles in addition to BEVs and PHEVs, so it is often left out of discussions about China’s electrification efforts. Despite the fact that Geely sells many BEVs on an annual basis, the company is not a pure BEV manufacturer, and even a recent FT article about Chinese electric car manufacturers says that it sells many BEVs other than the Zeekr brand. is not mentioned.
According to Motorsport, eight of the top 10 plug-in models in June were made in China, and even the No. 1 Tesla Model Y and No. 2 Tesla Model 3 have some units made in China. Geely Automobile is not included in this list despite its high BEV production overall. The lack of his BEV models in the top 10 is also another reason why Geely is sometimes left out of his BEV discussions.
Geely Automobile sold 32,961 BEVs in September 2023, which is only 9% more than the 30,277 it sold in September 2022. Geely Automobile is often ignored due to slowing growth, but it still sells more BEVs than most OEMs.
authentic volume
According to Geely Automobile’s unaudited sales figures released in September 2023, the total number of ICE, PHEV, and BEV units in the same month was 170,472 units, including 119,963 non-Galaxy Geely units, 13,089 Galaxy units, and Zeekr units. 12,053 units, 21,859 Lynk units, and 3,517 Livan units. unit. On a year-to-date (“YTD”) basis, Geely Automobile has sold 1,155,278 units.
There are both wholesale and retail Listed in CPCA September 2023 Retail Sales Ranking Express Report. CPCA wholesale The figures of 170,472 units in September and 1,155,278 units since the beginning of the year match the numbers from Geely Automobile itself mentioned above. Looking at his September numbers on Best Selling Cars Blog, Zeekr’s month-to-date and year-to-date numbers are 12,053 and 79,028 units respectively, matching Geely’s front numbers. While the other brands on Best Selling Cars Blog don’t match Geely’s direct numbers, Lynk’s numbers are pretty close. The numbers in the blog are close enough to give us an insight into Geely’s main models.
At present, Geely’s best-selling vehicles are mainly ICE models, but it seems that they are also considering developing PHEVs and BEVs using these models in the future. The Boyue is a compact crossover SUV and one of Geely’s best-selling cars, with 20,101 units sold in September, according to Best Selling Cars Blog. In Malaysia it’s the Proton X70, while Boyue’s PHEV version is the Geely Galaxy L7. Geely Xingyue L, a mid-sized crossover SUV, is a large and luxurious car, with sales of 18,014 units in September, according to the best-selling car blog. According to a June 2021 release, this luxury SUV is the most advanced SUV ever launched by Geely Automobile. According to CnEVPost, the Hi-P variant offers his BEV, EREV, and PHEV type driving experience.
Xingyue L Hi-P is Geely’s first electric vehicle based on e-CMA architecture, allowing consumers to use only the battery for city trips and utilize long-range technology for extra mileage on long-distance trips. Geely Auto said that the distance can be maintained. His CMA architecture, jointly developed by Geely and Volvo, is known as the Compact Modular Architecture and has great flexibility and scalability. Consumers who choose the Xingyue L Hi-P will get the equivalent of an electric vehicle that offers BEV, EREV and PHEV driving experiences at the same time, Geely said in an article on the company’s WeChat account. .
New energy vehicles (“NEVs”) include both BEVs and PHEVs. Unfortunately, CPCA only shows a breakdown of his NEV sales. retail not the level wholesale level. Looking at CPCA’s NEV sales figures from January to September, Geely Automobile ranks fifth. retail The number of NEVs manufactured in China is 286,490 units.Click here for top 10 retail CPCA September 2023 Retail Sales Ranking Express List NEV Ranking:
Again, the numbers above include PHEVs. Looking only at BEVs, Geely Automobile sold 166,292 units in the first nine months of 2022, and increased by 37% to 228,534 units in the first nine months of 2023. In comparison, the number of NEV vehicles in the nine months was 205,317 and 286,490, respectively. Geely Auto’s EV sales in the first half of 2023 are on par with his OEMs, the world’s most famous, such as Mercedes-Benz (OTCPK: MBGAF) and his BMW (OTCPK: BMWYY).
Geely sold 92,758 BEVs in Q3 2023. This is a 15% increase from his 80,475 units in Q3 2015 and shows Zeekr is doing particularly well.
*100% of Zeekr’s units are listed above, even though Geely Automobile and its subsidiaries own only about 55% of Zeekr, according to the interim report for 1H 2023. In other words, we can see above that 79,028 Zeekr BEVs were sold from January to September, but Geely Auto’s 55% interest only represents about 43,465 of them. According to Best Selling Cars Blog, the 12,053 Zeekr units sold in September consisted of 8,701 Model 001 units, 1,725 Model X units, and 1,627 Model 009 units. According to CnEVPost, Zeekr is targeting annual sales of 140,000 units in 2023 and 650,000 units by 2025.
Aside from the Zeekr and including the Panda Mini, most of Geely’s remaining BEVs appear to be from the Geometry brand. As an example, looking at Geely’s unaudited sales figures for September 2023, it shows 12,053 Zeekr BEVs and a total of 32,961 BEVs. That means there were 20,908 non-Zeekr BEVs. Jining Friendly Auto Trading said 19,053 Geometry BEVs were sold in September, accounting for a significant portion of the 20,908 non-Zeekr BEVs. Looking at the 2022 numbers can further support the conclusion that most of his BEV other than Zeekr is from the Geometry line. According to Geely Automobile’s report, 71,941 Zeekr BEVs were sold in 2022, for a total of 262,253 BEVs sold in the year, of which 190,312 non-Zeekr BEVs were sold. According to Electrek, Geely sold 149,389 units of its Geometry BEV in 2022. This is the bulk of the 190,312 non-Zeekr BEVs for the year.
The adorable little Geely Panda Mini model is the best-selling Geely electric car, with 10,221 units sold in September and 68,862 units sold from January to September, according to Best Selling Car Blog. The LFP battery is one of the reasons why this vehicle is so cheap, starting at less than US$10,000. According to Best Selling Cars Blog, his September wholesale sales of Zeekr 001 models were his 8,701 units, and his sales for the first nine months of this year were his 52,998 units. According to Automotive News Europe, the Zeekr 001 FR accelerates from 0 to 100 km/h in 2.07 seconds, which is slightly faster than the Tesla Model S Plaid’s 2.1 seconds. The Geometry Model E is also an impressive model in the electric field, with 4,332 units sold in September and 19,267 units sold in the first nine months of this year, according to Best Selling Cars Blog.
evaluation
Looking at the annual report for 2022 and interim financial results for the first half of 2023, the 12 months to June 2023 (“TTM”) shareholder return, gross profit and sales amounted to RMB 5,279 million, respectively. 22.96 billion RMB and 162.963 billion RMB. In US dollar terms, this represents a gain of approximately $722 million for shareholders. I don’t think it’s unreasonable for Geely Automobile as a whole to sell at a high PER. Returns to shareholders range from 15x to 20x, meaning valuations range from $1.1 billion to $14.5 billion when rounded to the nearest 500 million yen. The share capital section of the interim results for the first half of 2023 shows 10,056,973,786 shares. Multiplying these stocks by his October 24th GELYF price of $1.12 gives him a market cap of $11.3 billion. I’m neutral on the stock, as its market capitalization is within a reasonable valuation range.
Disclaimer: The content of this article should not be relied upon as a formal investment recommendation. Don’t buy stocks without doing your own thorough research.
Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.