The real estate industry wants Mayor Eric Adams to remain in office as he may not like his successor, especially the next mayor.
An FBI investigation into the mayor’s campaign fundraising practices has made international headlines and influenced New York’s political class. buzzer sound at SOMOS, the annual post-election retreat held two weeks ago in San Juan, Puerto Rico. (Mr. Adams, who has not been accused of any wrongdoing by authorities, did not attend the festivities.)
No one has yet announced their intention to challenge Adams politically. But if for some reason Adams is forced to resign before the end of his term, the race to replace him will be unlike anything the city has ever seen.
“It’s going to shake up the political world,” said Lupe Todd-Medina, president of Effective Media Strategies, who has consulted on mayoral campaigns. “Then you’ll get other candidates with different ideas. I think you’ll probably get more left-wing candidates, more centrist candidates, and you’ll get some wild cards. The question is, what does the city do? It’s about whether you want it.”
But so far little is known about Adams’ investigation.
federal employee attacked They searched the homes of an Adams campaign fundraiser and an aide in his international affairs office, and raided the residence of a former Turkish Airlines executive. confiscated The mayor’s cell phone was obtained as part of a thorough investigation into Mr. Adams’ campaign activities. received illegal donations From the Turkish people and the Turkish government.
The agent also reportedly interested Adams administration or not? speed up Fire safety inspections for developers of luxury high-rise buildings. donated He made an excellent contribution to the mayor’s campaign.In addition to all this, a lawsuit filed last week claims that an unidentified woman accused Adams was sexually assaulted in 1993 while he was a traffic police officer.
Mr. Adams dismissed questions about his fundraising practices, characterizing the FBI investigation as merely “.”review” and vowed that his campaign would abide by the law. He also denied the sexual assault charge, saying: Reporters said they had no recollection of meeting the accuser.
His allies in the business world also don’t seem concerned about the investigation. But if Mr. Adams is forced to resign, they are more likely to seek a successor with managerial experience who can work with various constituencies and rein in rapidly growing budget deficits that threaten to swallow up basic city services. You’ll like it. (Adams spent decades in the New York City Police Department before serving as a state representative and Brooklyn borough president.)
“There is no reason to believe there will be a special election,” said Kathryn Wilde, president and CEO of the Partnership for New York City, a nonprofit organization that supports the city’s business leaders. “If there were, the business community would be looking for a candidate who would prioritize public safety and fiscal responsibility, along the lines of Mayor Adams.”
How special elections work
Federal investigations into City Hall are nothing new.
prosecutor asked a question In 2017, Bill de Blasio faced controversy over allegations that he tried to facilitate favors on behalf of donors who donated to his campaign and nonprofit organizations, even though he actually made the donations. There wasn’t. do not bring charges. Republican political operatives was convicted of a crime of stealing $1.1 million From Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s 2009 re-election campaign. And Ed Koch sponsored factory It was so large that it attracted the attention of the U.S. Attorney’s Office, then led by Rudy Giuliani.
The last mayor to resign before the end of his term was William O’Dwyer in 1950. resigned During the police corruption scandal, he was immediately appointed ambassador to Mexico by President Harry Truman. Twenty years earlier, former Mayor Jimmy Walker, a member of Tammany Hall’s powerful political machine, was forced to resign under pressure from President Franklin Roosevelt for accepting bribes.
If Adams resigns, the city charter spells out a number of rules for his replacement. First, the public defender will become acting mayor and hold a special election within three days of assuming power.If a vacancy occurs during the first three years of his term (Mr. Adams is in his second year), at least an election must be held. 90 days After the opening. If Adams resigns during his fourth year in office, the special election could coincide with that year’s primary or general election, depending on when he steps down.
In this case, current elected official Jumaane Williams will serve as acting mayor. Although Williams is a politician, he probably won’t be accepted with open arms by the city’s real estate community. They had previously criticized him for not supporting tax incentives or development..
The powers of the acting mayor are severely limited, making life easier for the real estate industry. Mayor pro tem cannot hire or fire commissioners or other appointees and must wait nine days after leaving office to sign any laws or resolutions passed by the City Council. And if the public defender is unable to serve as mayor for any reason, the city auditor will take over. (This is Brad Lander, a politician who is also not well-liked by the real estate industry. opposed Extension of favorable 421a property tax incentives for developers. )
Two other details may be the most important. The special election will be an open election regardless of party affiliation, allowing candidates from both parties to jump into the race. And it would follow the city’s ranked-choice voting system, which allows voters to select multiple candidates and rank them in order of their favorites.
Political consultant Jerry Sknik believes dozens of candidates will jump into the race, encouraged by the city’s generous public matching funds and ranked-choice voting system. Turnout could even approach the 2020 presidential election. 70 percent of New Yorkers voted.
“It could be a racially or politically polarized election with someone from every important group participating,” he said. “This is a completely new scenario. We’ve never done anything close to this.”
Who wants real estate?
The best qualities real estate industry leaders look for in a mayor are managerial ability and the ability to deal with financial and other crises.
James Wacht, president and managing principal of Lee & Associates in New York City, says, “This needs to be someone with management experience, not a policy novice. “Instead, it must be someone who appoints a competent and experienced commissioner.” “And it has to be someone who can work well with different political constituencies.”
Finding someone who can quickly build a winning coalition is another matter. Putting together a citywide campaign in just two months is a daunting task for most city politicians who have never held a race beyond the borough.It’s unstoppable. jessica ramos of Queens and State Senate. Zellner Millie Brooklyn has stopped inquiring about the possibility of taking on Adams in the future.
“The mechanisms for doing something quickly are those that are better known, more organized, and that have been done before,” said Bradley Honan, president and CEO of the Honan Strategy Group, a polling firm. “We’re going to reward people who have done it.”
A candidate like Williams could have an advantage in the race. won It was a special election for public defender citywide in 2019 when he topped 16 other candidates. The Brooklyn-based Democrat has since won reelection in the next election. 2021 In addition to appearing on the statewide ballot in the lieutenant governor and gubernatorial races, he could potentially rely on a spell as mayor pro tem.
But the city’s electoral districts look very different in 2019. In that special election, 82 According to Suknik’s analysis, 10% of voters were Democrats, 10% were Republicans, and nearly half of voters were 65 or older.only 9 percent At that time, voters came to the polling station. Since then, Republicans have won city council elections; Incumbent loses seat in Bronx homeowner-heavy areaQueens, and southern Brooklyn communities have shifted to the right over the past three years due to voter concerns about public safety, education, and other quality of life issues.
“Can Republicans win bipartisan elections? The answer is yes. “For some voters, voting conservative is no longer taboo,” said political consultant Hank Sheinkopf. “People aren’t happy. When they feel frustrated or threatened, they tend to act out.”
A prominent moderate Democratic lawmaker has cleaned up after campaign events before. outer borough I’m paying attention.
new poll The article, distributed last week, asks New Yorkers what they think of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s accomplishments. The poll also asked whether Cuomo or Adams would run the city better and who they would choose from a field of candidates including Cuomo, Williams, Lander and former mayoral candidate Kathryn Garcia. also asked.
Cuomo, who resigned in 2021 amid sexual harassment allegations, has not commented on the poll, but a person who has spoken to him said he would rather return to the state in 2026 because he would like to return to his old job. He thinks he wants to run for governor.