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by Lewis Jones, football journalist
14:45, UK, Sunday 10 December 2023
Our tipster Jones Knows has set his sights on the Premier League cards, predicting a narrow away win for Man City against Luton on Sunday.
Everton vs Chelsea, Sunday 2pm
Everton would be above Chelsea in the Premier League table after deducting points, but that is no fluke.
Sean Dyche made his team play straightforward and dangerous football. Chelsea’s name and strong attacking metrics are still heavily reflected in the match price. Here the away win traded at 5/4 on Sky Bet. It looks horribly short.
Everton look worth taking a chance on at 6/5 draw no bets if they can regain momentum from their impressive 3-0 win over Newcastle.
Raheem Sterling’s direct dribbling and ability to draw fouls and yellow cards from opponents is still a persistent advantage that can be exploited. Diogo Dalot was booked for a foul on Sterling on Wednesday night, taking his tally to 13 bookings from opponents. That’s a ridiculous number, six more than any other player. This obviously leaves Everton’s full-backs very vulnerable to the cards, so depending on where Sterling lines up, a 5/1 with Sky bet for Vitaly Mykolenko to get the cards is definitely Become a runner.
Score prediction: 2-1
Fulham v West Ham, Sunday 2pm
West Ham are a team that makes my head tired.
Their results remain mediocre and David Moyes’ future beyond this season is in doubt, but they remain just three points behind Tottenham and Manchester United. There is no doubt that these perform too well, as can be seen from his model, which gives him 7 points higher expected points than the underlying indicators. Only Manchester United are performing at a higher level. I don’t know how this will turn out. Then it’s best to play for a draw.
Alex Iwobi has been looked down upon by the market after being offered an opener on Sky Bet on 14/1. Marco Silva is a master at lighting a fire and making his players feel unstoppable, and that certainly applies to the normally timid Iwobi, as his 10 shots and three goals showed. He has a great place in Fulham’s system. in his last three home appearances. His good form in front of goal may continue.
Score prediction: 1-1
Luton vs Manchester City, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – Play the Super 6 here!
Luton’s corner line on Kenilworth Road is still full of things of value.
Rob Edwards knows he has to get the ball into the opposition’s half quickly and play set-pieces to create situations where his team plays at a high tempo and wins corners and free-kicks from the wings. They have traditionally been very good at taking corners at home, with an average of 7.4 corners per game at Kenilworth Road last season – only West Brom in the Championship had more corners.
The move up to the Premier League has not had a big impact on their results yet, with them winning 42 corners in seven games, averaging six corners per 90 minutes.
So 10/11 is very generous as it offers a Sky Bet just by winning 3 or more corners.
Manchester City are not their usual self – you can see that in the number of corners they are conceding. They have allowed 26 corner kicks in their last four games, averaging 6.5 corners per game. Their usual over-the-top ability to squeeze opponents out with possession football has diminished, making them more vulnerable to counterattacks on goal. I can see them having a thrilling win, but I’ll focus more on Luton’s corner count.
Score prediction: 0-1 | Jones knows best bet: Luton win 3 or more corners (10/11 Sky Bet – bet here!)
Tottenham vs Newcastle, Sunday 4:30pm, live on Sky Sports – Play the Super 6 here!
Newcastle looked to be in hot pursuit at Goodison Park, but there was little time for this nervous side to catch their breath.
With just two wins in all competitions in their last 13 away matches, Sky Bet at 2/1 does not give us much confidence in winning away. What’s more, manager Eddie Howe has his eyes set on Wednesday’s game against AC Milan, so he may make adjustments to his already adjusted squad to keep energy levels up for the big night. That said, judging by their performance in the last two games at home, it’s hard to trust that 23/20 Spurs will likely convert their territorial advantage into goals.
With just two goals scored from 110 touches in the opposition box, 32 of which were shots, and an expected goal average of 4.2, the attackers’ charges are hampered. It’s a draw.
However, Pedro Polo has the potential to find the back of the net this season and Sky Bet’s odds of 25/1 underestimate his chances of scoring. He has had seven shots in his last two games at home, with one shot hitting the post and two others going on target. His turn may be coming soon.