A winning week is good. i guess.
Last week, I went 8-7-1 against the spread with NFL picks and 9-7 straight up. But it doesn’t feel good considering it actually wasn’t that tough of a week.
Here’s why I know it: Hats off to my colleague Dave Richard. He is 14-1-1 ATS and is part of the CBSSports.com Expert Picks. That alone shows he hasn’t had a tough week. Right, Dave?
Seriously, I need a week like that. I am currently 88-85-7 ATS, 108-72 for the season.
December is approaching. Then a candidate appears. It’s also a great time to have a great week over .500 both ATS and straight up.
Thursdays, 8:15pm ET (Amazon Prime Video)
This is a very important game for these teams heading into the playoffs. The Cowboys are on a roll right now, but the Seahawks are stumbling. The Cowboys have the advantage at home, and there’s no reason to think that won’t carry over here. Dak Prescott continues his hot ways. The Cowboys are big.
choose: Cowboys 31, Seahawks 20
Sunday, 1pm ET (CBS, paramount+)
This is a long journey for a Chargers team that hasn’t achieved much. But the Patriots were even worse. At least the Chargers have a capable quarterback. Even the disastrous Chargers pass defense can’t wake up the New England offense. The Chargers win.
choose: Chargers 23, Patriots 10
Sunday, 1pm ET (Fox; Father and mother)
The Lions suffered a blowout loss at home to the Packers, while the Saints suffered a road loss to the Falcons. The Lions’ defense has been a big issue lately. I hope Derek Carr plays well here as the Saints win the shootout against the Lions.
choose: Saints 32, Lions 30
Sunday, 1pm ET (Fox; Father and mother)
The Falcons defeated the Saints last week to lead the NFC South, and the Jets continue to do well. New York’s offense is terrible no matter who is at quarterback. The defense can still play at a high level, so it will be a close game. Still, expect the Falcons to win.
choose: Falcons 19, Jets 17
Sunday, 1pm ET (CBS, paramount+)
The Steelers seemed to have found something offensively last week after changing coordinators, but the Cardinals took a step back offensively last week in their loss to the Rams. The Steelers defense will once again test Kyler Murray and he will struggle. Kenny Pickett would be good enough to win.
choose: Steelers 24, Cardinals 13
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Sunday, 1pm ET (CBS, paramount+)
The Colts are in a hot spot in the middle of playoff contention, which comes as a surprise to many. The Titans are 4-7, but have won all four of their home games. That’s important. Mike Vrabel will prepare the team for divisional play, and Will Revis will outperform Gardner Minshew. Titans win.
choose: Titans 23, Colts 20
Sunday, 1pm ET (Fox; Father and mother)
The managers have revamped their coaching of the defense, which could help the defense get a little better. It’s going to be a real challenge against this Miami offense. However, the Dolphins have not had a spectacular record so far. They won’t come here either. They’ll win, but Sam Howell will keep it by a close margin.
choose: Dolphins 26, Commanders 23
Sunday, 1pm ET (CBS, paramount+)
This is a big game in terms of impact on the playoffs. Denver has won five straight games, and the defense was the key to the turnaround. The Texans lost a big game to the Jaguars last week, but they will bounce back here as CJ Stroud did a good job of exploiting Denver’s defense and winning a close game.
choose: Texans 24, Broncos 22
Sunday, 4:05pm ET (CBS, paramount+)
The Panthers fired manager Frank Reich, but he was far from a problem for this team. The roster is not good and Bryce Young is not playing well. The Bucks have had some big defensive issues lately, but this is a team that can fix them. Since Tampa Bay won the championship, the Panthers won’t have to worry about firing their coach.
choose: Bucks 27, Panthers 17
Sunday, 4:25pm ET (Fox; Father and mother)
The Browns are playing their second straight game on the road, but remain on the West Coast. They weren’t feeling great after losing to the Broncos last week. The Rams went from a bye to two wins in a row and advanced to the playoff race. I expect Matthew Stafford to return to University City and outperform Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The Rams take it.
choose: Rams 21, Browns 16
Sunday, 4:25pm ET (Fox; Father and mother)
This is the game of the week, a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game. The Eagles won that game due to an injury to Brock Purdy. He’s back and playing well. The Eagles’ defense isn’t like that. San Francisco’s defense appears to be back on track after a lull a few weeks ago. That’s the difference. The 49ers will win a tough road game.
choose: 49ers 27, Eagles 23
Sunday, 8:20pm ET (NBC, Father and mother)
The Chiefs are playing back-to-back road games, while the Packers are getting some rest after their Thanksgiving game. That’s an advantage for the Packers. Green Bay’s offense has improved with the help of Jordan Love, and they should be able to win this game as well. The Chiefs will be slow to find a path to victory, but it’s coming.
choose: Chiefs 24, Packers 23
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, Father and mother)
With the loss of Joe Burrow, this game lost a lot of its luster. Jacksonville has had some big wins in the division, but that can sometimes lead to disappointment. But this is a Monday night and it’s been since 2011 that they’ve been to this location, so you won’t be disappointed. They will be at their best in Jake Browning’s first road start.
choose: Jaguars 28, Bengals 13