You’re now a general manager in the NFL. Congratulations! The team owner gives you only one job. It’s about getting a franchise quarterback.
You can select any quarterback that has been in the league in the last five years. (Hey, if we’re already in Fantasyland and we’re going to make you the GM, you might as well go all the way.) Which one would you go to?
Here’s the draft order based on both performance and potential: You’re on time!
1. Joe Burrow (2020 Round 1, Pick 1): Best quarterback of the last five years…so far. He’s already led his team to the Super Bowl. Although there are concerns about injuries, he has shown his best performance on the field.
2. Brock Purdy (Round 7, Pick 262, 2022): Mr. Irrelevant blossomed into Mr. Franchise for the 49ers. An MVP candidate and an inspiration to journeyman QBs everywhere, he works from the back of the draft to the front.
3. Jalen Hurts (Round 2, Pick 53, 2020): Although he has regressed a bit from his MVP-level play in 2022, he remains one of the league’s key two-way quarterbacks.
4. Tua Tagovailoa (2020, Round 1, Pick 5): The QB with the most ups and downs in this top tier. Mike McDaniel seems to have unlocked something with Tagovailoa, but could anyone else?
5. Trevor Lawrence (2021 Round 1, Pick 1): It’s not about his toughness, it’s not about his ability to organize a team. But is his inconsistency against better teams hurting him or the Jaguars franchise as a whole?
6. Justin Herbert (2020, Round 1, Pick 6): If a new coaching staff takes over starting in 2024, he could move up this list. The brilliance of his excellence has been diminished by the rampant charging around him.
7. CJ Stroud (Round 1, Pick 2, 2023): He’s showing every sign to be an elite-level talent for years to come, but it’s still early.
8. Kyler Murray (2019, Round 1, Pick 1): While concerns about his size and durability have been proven correct, he still has the ability to confuse and trouble defenses. He may not be the solution, but he’s the kind of QB who will do it until a solution is found.
9. Anthony Richardson (2023, Round 1, Pick 4): His NFL career is still in the “possibility” stage. If he stays on track like he did earlier this season, and if he stays healthy (though that’s not a sure thing), he could be on this list quickly.
10. Justin Fields (2021 Round 1, Pick 11): He has world-class talent, especially speed, in a system that magnifies his weaknesses instead of exploiting his strengths. The question is, has he already reached his limit or does he have room to grow going forward?
11. Bryce Young (2023, Round 1, Pick 1): It’s clear by now that Stroud is better suited for the NFL game than Young from the jump, but Young also has a disastrous organization behind him. His game-winning drive last week against Atlanta showed he has the skill and touch to succeed in the NFL. The question is, how often can he flash that kind of brilliance? I’m saying that.
12. Jordan Love (2020, Round 1, Pick 26): It’s clear he’s not the next link in the Favre-Rodgers line of Packer immortality. However, he showed explosive brilliance in his first game as a starting QB. More data is needed, but this feels like a reasonable spot for Love.
13. Sam Howell (Round 5, Pick 144, 2022): He developed into one of the few stars of a barren coaching team. It will be interesting to see if he can get better talent and coaching around him.
14. Daniel Jones (2019, Round 1, Pick 6): Overrated from the moment of his selection, he managed to turn his credibility into a major expansion. But have we already seen the range of his skills?
15. Will Levis (Round 2, Pick 33, 2023): While the preseason was underwhelming, his work during the season was impressive. If NFL defensive coordinators find a counterpunch, they’ll have to reevaluate him, but right now he seems like a reasonable starting-level QB in the 32-team NFL.
16. Gardner Minshew (Round 6, Pick 178, 2019): Minshew, leaning toward rental gun status, is on his third team in the last five years, but Indianapolis still has a playoff berth. He might not win the Super Bowl, but he’ll still be in the game. That’s all you can ask for at this point.
17. Kenny Pickett (2022, Round 1, Pick 20): A great story about a local college hero staying home and joining a local pro team has not translated into a great performance. Pickett has been torn between his talent and injuries during his young career, and it remains to be seen whether he’s a good quarterback who doesn’t stretch well or a bad quarterback who occasionally scores high.
18. Aidan O’Connell (Round 4, Pick 135, 2023): He took over for the Raiders when Jimmy Garoppolo went down with an injury and then managed to play out the rest of the season. He scored four touchdowns in a 63-21 win against the Chargers last week, which is not bad for a rookie.
19. Mac Jones (2021, Round 1, Pick 15): Like Love, he had the impossible task of replacing a legend. Like Love, he couldn’t do that either. Unlike Love, he couldn’t even hang on to his first job.
20. Desmond Ridder (Round 3, Pick 74, 2022): Anti-Minshew. He was handed the keys to the Falcons’ franchise and immediately drove it into the ditch. Several of the Falcons’ losses this season have been a direct result of Ridder’s mistakes, and he has been benched twice this season as a result.
21. Zach Wilson (2021, Round 1, Pick 2): It’s a shame considering he was drafted so high. After all, the floor is the ceiling, and Aaron Rodgers’ coaching hasn’t helped this year either.
22. Bailey Zappe (Round 4, Pick 137, 2022): Jones flinched, prompting him to commit to New England. It couldn’t have gone any better.
23. Jake Browning (undrafted, 2019): He is currently receiving an excellent tryout with Cincinnati in relief of Burrow, who is currently out of action. He could set himself up for a strong second act with another team, especially if he leads Cincinnati to the playoffs. However, there is a long way to go to get there.
24. Trey Lance (Round 1, Pick 3, 2021): Probably the worst quarterback pick in the past five years considering how much San Francisco gave up to get him. Brock Purdy saved the 49ers from years of disdain. Lance never really had a chance. For all we know, he may be a great player, but he’s languishing deep on Dallas’ bench.
25. Tommy DeVito (undrafted, 2023): Tommy Cattletz, better known for his Italian pedigree and nickname than for his play on the field, is a quick learner and successfully leads a woeful Giants team to an unexpected victory. His story would make for a good Netflix movie, even if it doesn’t necessarily get him into the playoffs.
More than a dozen other quarterbacks drafted since 2019 have started at least one game, most on spot injury duty. Players like Jalen Hall (Minnesota), Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Cleveland), Easton Stick (Chargers), and Malik Willis (Tennessee) are players in the league, even if not necessarily on their current teams. He still has the potential to play an active role.
Other players are already out of the league or buried deep in the charts, requiring either a disaster or a five-touchdown blowout to see the field. But as long as there are linebackers ready to slam quarterbacks into their knees, there will be a place for the Drew Locks, Tyson Badgents and Brett Rypiens of the world. As this season has shown, even franchise quarterbacks are fragile and vulnerable.