Brady Cook, QB, Mizzou – Alternative Line 325+ Passing Yards (+380)
My beloved NBC colleague Denny Carter and I joined last year’s Fantasies for a scintillating rendition of my all-time favorite song, “Under Pressure,” by David Bowie (played by Denny) and Freddie Mercury. After winning the Football Expo’s Karaoke 🎤 event (I played and I hit the high note FWIW), I knew the anticipation for this year’s We/My encore performance would be high.
FF Expo CEO/hero Bob Lang wisely followed my suggestion to hold a karaoke festival at the Doubletree Hotel where everyone was staying, so the stakes were raised and I set myself apart with my performance. It turns out that if you want to achieve this, the “traditional” approach doesn’t work. Dozens of people have gone before me.
So as a homage to the unassailable weirdo Al Yankovic, I repurposed all the lyrics from Living Color’s iconic song “Cult of Personality” to suit the moment and created “Cult of NFL Fantasy”. ” lamented the egos of the fantasy influencer community.
Unfortunately, I can’t jump up on the dinner table at the Doubletree and belt out an ode to DK’s 325+ Passing Yards Alt Line, but I can provide the lyrics.
“Oh, what a new thing.”
Early October 2023
DraftKings gives away free money
What a Brady (Cook$) what a night!”
I went into the DraftKings kiosk room when IIIIII.
Then IIIIII, I looked at that Alt Line and knew what to do
Oh, how nice
LSU’s D is a farce.
Cook has cleared that line in his last three games.
+380, what a night! ”
Anthony Grant, RB, Nebraska – Alternate Line: 100 Rushing Yards = +600 | 110+ Rushing Yards = +900(!)
Long forgotten was the 2022 Illini defense, which held opponents to 12.8 points and 100 rushing yards per game while averaging a stellar 3.3 YPC. Former DC Ryan Walters is now Purdue’s head coach, and the University of Illinois happened to beat him 44-19 last week. UI was kind enough to allow wide receiver turned Tyrone Tracy Jr. to break the 100-yard barrier for the first time in his college career with 112 rushing yards on 21 carries. The blueprint was clear for the Boilermakers. They relied on Illinois’ struggling front seven to run the ball 45 of 71 plays for 189 yards and three touchdowns. They rank an unsightly 91st in defensive EPA/play, 115th in percentage allowed at 46.2%, and an unsightly 93rd in overall run defense, which is in rebuilding mode.
It’s not hard to understand Nebraska’s modus operandi, as the Cornhuskers’ ineffective passing offense ranks 94th in yards per pass attempt (6.4) and 112th in points per drive. But in reality, they are a very effective rushing team, averaging 209 rushing yards per game at an excellent 5.47 YPC clip (17th), ranking 14th nationally. Grant started this year as the RB2 behind Gabe Irvin, with Rahmir Johnson filling the passing down role. But fate intervened and Irvin and Johnson were sidelined for the foreseeable future, leaving Grant as the only reliable running back on the roster. In his first start of the season in Week 3, Grant rushed 22 times for 135 yards and 6.1 YPC against Louisiana. This was his sixth 100-yard game dating back to last season. He had his breakout performance in a 45-7 blowout win, gaining 16 yards on six carries against a tough Michigan run defense.
That stinker against UM works in our favor here because the stupid book fails to see the big picture. If you’re going to taunt us with +600 for anything over 100 and +900 (!) for anything over 110 against Illinois’ lap dog run defense, take the charlatans at DK to the paycheck and buy that wet winning ticket. shove it into their box. Mouth like a ball gag.
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Jason Beane, QB, Kansas State vs. UCF – Altline: 275+ Passing Yards = +310 | 300+ Passing Yards = +650
In the first four games of this season, head coach Dave Aranda’s Baylor has been both a comedy and a tragedy, suffering a blowout loss to Texas State 42-21 (5% expected win) in Week 1 and facing immediate flaws. He looked hopeless at his chances of winning against Utah State. He wasn’t ritually slaughtered by Come Rising (who bears an uncanny resemblance to a young Dave Grohl from FWIW) and Texas. Talk to Baylor fans, ask them what they think of the program so far this year, and get ready to clear your calendar for the rest of the day.
But last week, the Waco Bears received an early big Christmas present with the return of injured starting QB Blake “The Color and the” Chapen, a seemingly irreversible third-quarter 35. They recovered from a 7-7 deficit against UCF with FG-TD-TD-Fumble. They returned a TD-FG and defeated UCF 36-35 in one of the wildest second-half comebacks I’ve ever seen. By the way, he had a 4% chance of UCF losing that game, but they did so calmly. Last week, UCF was up against Kansas State 24-24 in Q3, but a fumble, interception and missed field goal led to the Golden Knights losing 44-31 despite having a 57% post-game predicted victory. .
This week, UCF traveled to play a team from Kansas State, which was ranked 24th in the nation, and then ran into a strong Texas team. But that’s a good thing, since Rowan Atkinson’s alter ego Mr. Bean is now an alt-line buy after overcorrecting based on a lackluster performance against UT last week. He ranks 14th in his EPA/play offensively while the Jayhawks average 8.8 yards per pass attempt (26th) and have a 52% completion rate (11th). UCF plays at his 27th-fastest pace in the country, averaging his 8.0 yards per play (4th).
Last year, veteran signal-caller Jason Bean completed 260 passing yards three times and topped 270 against an FCS team earlier this season. Ideally, he could dictate the same pass-heavy script the team has employed all year to keep pace with head coach Gus Malzahn’s high-powered offense, allowing the Golden Knights to get off to a quick start again. Blake Shapen threw for 293 passing yards last week against UCF, and Kansas State totaled 536 yards against UCF the week before, totaling over 70 points in both games.
Today, I’m feeling inspired to create, so I’d like to share with you a parody song from the seminal Foo Fighters’ second studio album, “The Color and the Shape(n)”. Below is a brief excerpt from their magnum opus, “Best of You,” to explain how I feel about the play.
“I would like to confess one more thing: I hate FanDuel.”
I live to make DraftKings break the kiosk rules.
UCF can hardly resist, they will be abused
Kansas cashes this bet, this bet, this bet, this bet for you
Jason Bean cashes in this bet, this bet, this bet, this bet for YOOUUUU
Now we’re flush and getting fresh cash…”
Jason Beane’s 275+ passing yards and +310 on the alt line is a tremendous ROI considering the way these two teams score and give up points. I think this game could be a core development, so 300+ yards for him at (+650) is not out of the equation.
Richard Reese, RB, Baylor vs. Texas Tech – Less than 57.5 rushing yards
Speaking of Baylor and UCF’s pathological inability to shut out games, the Golden Knights allowed Reese 100 rushing yards on 16 carries. In a truly insane performance, Reese gained 8 yards against Texas, 37 yards against Utah, and just 14 yards in Week 1’s loss to Texas State. Nominal starter Dominic Richardson was injured but returned last week and had 10 carries for 37 yards. Richardson is now fully up to speed and should be ready to take on a nearly 50/50 share of Baylor’s rushing offense, which ranks 89th in team performance according to CFB Winning Edge analysis .
Reese, on the other hand, is undersized at 5’9/182 and one of the least dynamic backs in the country. Of the 125 FBS rushers with at least 45 carries, he ranks 119th in YAC (2.36) and 123rd in PFF Elusive Rating. For a Baylor team that ranks 87th in rushing performance according to PFF, he literally just gets what’s blocked and nothing more. I’m playing the under against a Texas Tech team that beat Houston last week with 239 rushing yards and 6.5 YPC. I think Tech can get enough points with this flawed Baylor D to force color and shape-heavy passing scripts. What are Reese’s under 57.5 rushing yards?