The Abraham Accords signed between Bahrain, Emirates and Israel are at a critical stage
[Bahrain] This occurred on September 15, 2020, almost a month after the Hamas attack on Israeli territory on October 7 and the ensuing war between Israel and two Gulf Arab states (United Arab Emirates and Bahrain). It was the first real test of the Abraham Accords, signed on the 1st. In Gaza.
Bahrain, through its parliament, recalled the Bahraini ambassador in Tel Aviv to Manama, the Israeli ambassador in Manama left the country in protest, and announced that economic cooperation between the two countries had been suspended due to Israel’s war against Hamas.
Israel’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement that there had been no official notification from the Bahrain government about the return of the two ambassadors and that relations with Bahrain were “stable” and that “it is not appropriate to issue this statement through Congress. , to absorb the anger of the people.”
Bahrain then responded through an official government spokesperson, saying, “The Israeli ambassador has left and the Bahraini ambassador has returned. There are no more flights between the two countries.” However, the statement did not mention Bahraini protests regarding the war.
The statement continued: “The priority of efforts at this stage is to protect civilian lives in accordance with international humanitarian law and, given the difficult humanitarian situation, to establish emergency humanitarian corridors to deliver relief supplies and medical aid to the Gaza Strip. We must focus on ensuring that the Protect the region from the effects of the situation in the Strip and a new spiral of violence, and work to forge clear political horizons for a just, inclusive and sustainable peace that guarantees stability and security for all. There is a need. ”
As for Emirates, relations with Israel are apparently stable, although there have been no “announced” contacts or talks between officials from the two countries.
Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), along with seven other countries – Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Morocco, Jordan and Egypt – call for an end to the current escalation in Gaza and for an escalation of tensions directly in the Gaza Strip. A 15-point statement was released. To stop the ongoing war and all military operations there. This is in addition to calls for rejecting the “forced displacement” of Palestinians from Gaza and for the swift implementation of a two-state solution.
Manama and Abu Dhabi also launched a campaign to collect donations for Gaza, and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan pledged to treat 1,000 Palestinian children, admit their families to UAE hospitals, and complete treatment. It was announced that the government would sponsor their return later. .
At the media level, public and private newspapers and television channels from both countries report on current events in Gaza daily, focusing on civilian casualties, especially Palestinians, and criticizing Israel’s military offensive against the Gaza Strip.
At the national level, Bahrain has allowed weekly demonstrations in solidarity with Gaza, two of which were held in front of the Israeli and US embassies. The demonstration was not reported because demonstrations of any kind for any reason are not normally allowed in the United Arab Emirates.
A semi-official source confirmed to The Media Line that “we cannot stop ongoing projects between Israel and the UAE, or even between Israel and Bahrain.”
The source, who preferred not to be named, said: “With the ongoing war between Israel and the Gaza Strip, of course work will be halted. Airlines will also be affected by the war. [flights] Flights from the two Gulf states to Tel Aviv have been suspended, which is normal.”
In fact, flights between Tel Aviv and Manama have been suspended, but flights between the UAE and Israel continue.
The official also said, “Especially in light of talk of escalation of the conflict and the possible entry of other forces such as Iran, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, Hezbollah, and Iran. It was also confirmed that military coordination between the two countries would continue. Yemen’s Ansar Allah al-Houthi movement could join the conflict, directly impacting security in the Gulf. ”
“All parties are working to prevent the conflict from escalating into wider circles,” the official said.
The Abraham Accords resolve such a crisis. It is a framework for finding diplomatic and political solutions to all security and military crises in the region.
Regarding the fate of the Abraham Accords, Amjad Taha, an Emirati-based expert on political and strategic issues, confirmed to The Media Line that “the Abraham Accords are continuing and stable.”
Taha added: “The Abraham Accords resolves such crises. It is a framework for finding diplomatic and political solutions to all security and military crises in the region.”
“The best solution to what is happening in Gaza today is to proceed to dialogue and ceasefire and find a humanitarian solution for the people of Gaza. This is one of the principles of the Abraham Accords and always will be. “We are doing that,” Taha continued. We pursue what is best for the region and its people. ”
“Once this crisis is over, when Palestinians eliminate Hamas and its crimes, and when decisions are left in the hands of the Palestinian National Authority and the Palestinian people, we will be closer to a two-state solution than ever before,” he said. . ”
Taha predicted that “as we move closer to ratifying the two-state solution, we will see more Arab states join the Abraham Accords, normalize relations with Israel, and perhaps enter into an Abraham Accords-like agreement with Tel Aviv.”
He said, “If the region had extended the Abraham Accords earlier, we would not have seen these crises and events. [we’d] If things had been handled better and in a completely different way, terrorist organizations like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis would not have had the voice they have today. ”
The only hope for the Abraham Accords is to elect a Republican president who prioritizes the peace process as a strategic solution to extremism and the Palestinian issue.
Dr. Najat Al Sayed, a political media scholar at American University in the Emirates, expressed deep skepticism about the Biden administration’s commitment to the Abraham Accords. Al-Sayed suggests that the regime’s approach is characterized by a lack of vision and strength, especially when it comes to complex issues such as agreements.
She told The Media Line: “Since the Biden administration won, my opinion has been very pessimistic about the fate of the Abraham Accords signed between Bahrain, the Emirates and Israel. “In my view, this government is weak and is struggling on all fronts,” he said. Aspects; There is no vision, especially when it comes to a tricky and complex subject like the Abraham Accords. ”
She criticized the administration’s stance on the deal, which she attributes to a partisan rejection of Trump-era policies. Al-Sayed sees this as presenting a superficial outlook that could ultimately undermine the US position and embolden its adversaries.
Discussing the Biden administration’s foreign policy actions, Al-Sayed pointed to the removal of the Houthi militia from the terrorist list and efforts to re-engage with Iran as signs of a retreat from hardline regional leadership. She recognizes these actions and the disorderly withdrawal from Afghanistan as concessions to extremists and undermines prospects for regional peace.
Al-Sayed questioned the feasibility of security negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel under a regime he deemed “failing” and said an increase in regional terrorism could undermine the deal. suggested.
“Given the security turmoil and Israel’s expansion, how can security negotiations be held between the largest Arab country and Israel? [non-] Free terrorists from all over the place? ” she asked.
“The louder the voices of terrorist groups in the region, the weaker the fate of the Abraham Accords will be, especially when it comes to a warm peace between ethnic groups, because the voices of moderates will weaken in the face of violence,” she said.
In Al-Sayed’s view, “the only hope for the Abraham Accords is to elect a Republican president who prioritizes the peace process as a strategic solution to extremism and the Palestinian issue.” Conversely, she worries that re-election of the Biden administration could mean continued turmoil and violence in the region, reducing the Abraham Accords to a token agreement with limited government-level involvement.
Dr. Mac Sharkawy, a US-based political analyst, gave a bleak outlook on the future of the Abraham Accords, suggesting that progress has stalled. Sharkawi told The Media Line that Bahrain has informally suspended its efforts with Israel and that a similar move could come from the UAE. He cited Jordan’s decision to withdraw its ambassador from Tel Aviv and noted that Latin American countries, including Bolivia, Chile and Colombia, have severed ties with Israel.
Sharkawi said 121 countries have taken a stand against Israel’s military action in Gaza, a move he sees as a “political siege” that resonates with Arabs. He doubted further expansion or negotiations based on the Abraham Accords without a two-state resolution between Israel and Palestine. Mr. Sharkawi noted that during the talks on normalizing relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman emphasized the need to address the Palestinian issue, which remains important to the Arab world.
The analyst also cited “‘ancient and modern’ Israeli intentions to exclude Palestinians from Palestine” and alleged attempts to impose its own solutions, leading to the suspension of the Abraham Accords. He said it was possible. He reflected on the agreement’s ultimate fate, which depends on Israel’s next actions. Mr. Sharkawi said the deal would gain momentum if Israel could persuade more countries to join by promoting a two-state solution, in line with the Arab Peace Initiative launched by the late Saudi King Abdullah at the Beirut Summit in 2002. concluded that it may be possible to recover the
The Abraham Accords still exist and a two-state solution is inevitable.
Sufian al-Samaralai, editor-in-chief of the Baghdad Post and political analyst, was very optimistic, telling The Media Line that “the Abraham Accords still exist and the two-state solution will inevitably come.” Ta.
Al Samararay pointed out that there is an ongoing struggle between countries seeking stability and terrorist groups that use religion as a pretext to prevent the creation of a new Middle East. He sees a consensus among allies that “Iran-funded gangs” are the main obstacle to achieving comprehensive peace in the region.
Al Samararay sees the recent attacks as a deliberate attempt by these groups to derail the possibility of an Israeli-Palestinian two-state solution, which was coming closer to fruition through talks with Saudi Arabia. He believes statements by Hamas leaders in Qatar confirm their opposition to normalization and peace agreements with Israel. Al-Samaralai interprets Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s change in rhetoric during his trip from Doha to Tehran as compliance with Iranian instructions rather than independent decision-making.
“There is a difference in the speech of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the Hamas militia. When he was in Doha before traveling to Iran, he said that the two-state solution must be approved, and then when he arrived in Tehran. At the time, he said the two-state solution should be recognized. [none] And we don’t want a two-state solution. It was not his decision, but rather what Iran’s orders told him and others to do,” al-Samaralai said.
In his view, an expansion of the Abraham Accords is expected once terrorist militias are crushed, hinting at future operations aimed at stabilizing the region and paving the way for more countries to join the peace initiative. ing.
These agreements will continue, but are now firmly frozen due to the war and the current situation in the region.
Mohammad Al Subaie, a political affairs researcher, spoke to The Media Line about his views on the intentions and current status of the Abraham Accords. He explained that the agreement was established with the aim of promoting peace in the Middle East and promoting a two-state solution.
Al-Subaie said that while the future of these agreements is uncertain, he believes signatories are united in rejecting the targeting of civilians by any group and will not tolerate violence.
Despite the challenges posed by the war and regional turmoil, Mr. Al-Subaie said, “My personal expectation is that these agreements will continue, but given the current situation with the war and the current situation in the region.” “The agreement is now firmly frozen,” he said.