Written by Aron Benmeir*
New York | November 5, 2023 (IDN) – Will Kosovar Prime Minister Kurti and Serbian President Vucic agree on anything unless the European Council changes the dynamics of the Serbian-Kosovo conflict by rewarding those who cooperate? I doubt it, but that would put pressure on non-cooperators.the party adjusts its position
The two countries have remained at odds since Kosovo declared independence from Serbia about 15 years ago. Despite continued efforts by the EU to defuse the conflict between the two countries, little progress has been made. What is debatable is that Serbia simply does not want to recognize Kosovo’s independence and still considers it to be one of its provinces.
Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat who has been leading the effort, said with good reason that a resolution to the Serbian-Kosovo conflict would not only serve the national interests of Pristina and Belgrade, but would also strengthen stability in the Balkans. I believe. This is a major concern for the EU, especially as the war in Ukraine continues to escalate.
The EU has long made the membership of Serbia and Kosovo conditional on mutual recognition. The European Council has long believed that such preconditions would motivate both countries to make the necessary concessions, so that they could begin the process of integration into the EU. Unfortunately, the European Council’s hopes were not realized. Despite the fact that both countries want to integrate into the EU, neither side has agreed to change its key positions.
Despite many difficult negotiations and multiple meetings between Vučić and Kurti, the two leaders remain at odds with each other and manage to turn strangeness into a science. It was very successful. Often they appear to agree on a variety of issues, only to find out that they have different interpretations of what they thought they had fundamentally agreed upon.
A case in point is the acceptance of the Franco-German plan, which focuses on the normalization of relations in terms of a common future for the EU, the most important element of which is the exchange of permanent missions, similar to embassies but at a lower level. be. Vucic has since refused to honor the agreement, and the Franco-German plan remains frozen.
Another early example is the EU mediation of the 2013 agreement between Pristina and Belgrade. The agreement called for the creation of a Serb Municipality Association that would allow Kosovo’s Serb-majority community to have limited autonomy but remain firmly an integral part of the country. of Kosovo.
Since then, no association has yet been established. Prime Minister Kurti opposed the plan during his time in opposition. Recently, he conditionally accepted Serbia’s recognition of Kosovo’s independence because it needed to show its people that it could receive something important in return from Belgrade.
Prime Minister Vučić initially agreed not to oppose Kosovo’s membership in several international organizations in exchange for the Association of Serb Municipalities, but although he said Serbia was “ready” to establish the association, Kosovo’s He reneged on his promise not to allow him to join the organization. organizations, including the United Nations, and their independence;
deep concern
The European Council expressed its deep concern at the lack of genuine interest on both sides to implement an agreement that could lead to the normalization and implementation of the Association, along with other EU-facilitated dialogues. The EU’s call for Kosovo and Serbia to implement the agreement without further delays or preconditions was also a cry in the wilderness that no one could hear.
On October 27, French President Macron, German Chancellor Scholz, and Italian Prime Minister Meloni called on Serbia to “de facto recognize” Kosovo, but Prime Minister Vučić did not listen at all. From his point of view, recognizing Kosovo’s territorial integrity, which in effect means recognizing Kosovo’s independence, is not a start for him.
Borrell recently said: “Unfortunately, the parties were not prepared to agree to it absent preconditions that were unacceptable to the other party. We will continue to advocate for an agreement.”
What is rather puzzling is that after so much trial and error, the EU has not been able to get anything agreed upon by both sides. The reason is obvious.
For Kurti, maintaining Kosovo’s independence is sacred. Even if many countries do not recognize Kosovo, they are not as important as Serbia’s recognition. Because Serbia considers Kosovo to be one of its own provinces and categorically refuses to recognize Kosovo’s independence, or even to recognize its territorial integrity and accept de facto independence. It is. .
For Vučić, the current geopolitical environment in the Balkans is not suitable for taking such an important step for three reasons. First, he wants to maintain good relations with both Russia and the EU. Second, the close cultural, religious and commercial ties between Serbia and Russia, combined with the escalating war in Ukraine, have angered President Putin, who is keen to maintain Serbia’s economic and political stability. There is a risk of increasing Third, Vucic is in no hurry. As long as Putin remains in power and holds his breath, he can wait with the peace of mind that the EU will always welcome Serbia into its fold, knowing that it is trying to keep Serbia away from Russia. .
The above strongly suggests one obvious fact. The EU’s decade-long strategy to make integration conditional on mutual recognition of the independence of Serbia and Kosovo has failed. The EU now has a new strategy focused on rewarding parties willing to make the necessary concessions, without punishing those who refuse to make any concessions but will be under intense pressure to make them. It’s time to hire. This approach would strip Vučić of the “veto” powers that prevented Kosovo from even becoming a candidate for integration into the European Community.
4 steps
Below are four steps Kosovo, with EU support, should take to break the impasse.
First, Borrell should work with Kurti to organize new elections in the Serb-majority municipalities in northern Kosovo. This first step will dramatically reduce tensions between the Serbian ethnic community and Pristina, which have been rising since the beginning of the year. It begins with a license plate dispute, then local elections that Serbs boycotted, and the violence that erupted after the failed elections. Prime Minister Kurti should have made it clear many times that he considers all people within his borders to be Kosovars and will accept Serbs like other Kosovars of Albanian origin, which is consistent with the EU Charter and the EU Required by the Charter.
Secondly, whether or not Vucic agrees, Kurti should immediately start creating an Association of Serb Municipalities. In response to this measure, major EU member states Germany, France, and Italy are trying to persuade the remaining five EU member states (Greece, Romania, Cyprus, Slovakia, and Spain) to recognize Kosovo, which is a precondition for their recognition. We should work hard to do so. Eventually full membership.
Third, Prime Minister Kurti should declare that Kosovo accepts the Franco-German plan as it is and will act to implement it as soon as Serbia agrees to follow suit. The EU should reward Kosovo by making it a candidate for EU membership.
The three steps above will put enormous pressure on Vucic to change his attitude. This is because he does not want Kosovo to move forward towards integration while he is left behind.
Fourth, Prime Minister Kurti should focus on strengthening Kosovo’s economy, rooting out corruption to encourage foreign investment, creating job opportunities for university graduates to prevent brain drain, improving healthcare, and of course the overall education system. . The more Kosovo progresses in meeting EU standards in these areas, the closer it will be to integration.
EU mediation between Serbia and Kosovo has hit a wall. No longer making the integration of Serbia and Kosovo conditional on the EU unless Serbia recognizes Kosovo’s independence, which would dramatically change the dynamics of the conflict and end the impasse. [IDN-InDepthNews]
*Dr. Aron Benmeir is a professor of international relations at New York University’s Center for Global Affairs. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle East studies.
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