pittsburgh pirates
2023 record: 76 wins, 86 losses (.469)
Fourth Place, Central New Jersey
Team ERA: 4.61 (22nd in MLB)
Team OPS: .707 (22nd in MLB)
what went well
After consecutive 100-loss seasons, the Pirates finished the season with a record of 76 wins and 86 losses, finishing in fourth place in the National League Central Division. They started well, finishing 20-9 through the end of April, but then slumped, going 27-49 during the summer and 28-28 in August and September. It ended at even. Jack Swinski was a true Lotto powerhouse, hitting a team-leading 26 bombs and also stealing 13 bases. Ke’Bryan Hayes began to show his ability to get over the fence, and his 15 home runs were the most ever in a major league season. Jared Toriolo, who changed his swing after being demoted to the minor leagues, put up some interesting hard-hitting numbers and could potentially secure a spot on the starting roster next season. Mitch Keller reached over 200 strikeouts for the first time in his major league career, and David Bednar became one of the league’s best closers.
what went wrong
O’Neal Cruz was limited to nine games after breaking his ankle while at bat. When the season began, many wondered if the huge shortstop could adjust to become a star. Even with a shortened season, we’re still asking the same questions. Leading candidates Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, Quinn Priester and Nick Gonzalez made their debuts but quickly fell flat. Mitch Keller’s second half looked much worse than the first, so which one is the real Mitch Keller? Other than Keller, there is a noticeable lack of reliable starting pitchers. Johan Oviedo, Luis Ortiz, and Rouncy Contreras had ERAs above 4.30, and at times looked unregisterable. Hopefully, first-round pick Paul Skeens is ready to earn a spot in the rotation next season.
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fantasy slant
**Brian Reynolds has signed a $106.75 million contract extension that will keep him in Pittsburgh for the next eight seasons after informing the team of his desire to be traded. For the season he had a batting average of .263/.330/.460, 24 home runs, and 12 stolen bases. He was on the disabled list with lower back inflammation, and his productivity declined upon his return. He started hitting more ground balls and his barrel rate dropped from his 14 percent to his 8.5 percent. It’s been two seasons since his 2021 performance, when he hit .302/.390/.522 with 24 jacks. Could it be due to contract negotiations or an injury? Probably, but hopefully the older version of Bryan Reynolds will be back in his 2024.
**Ke’Bryan Hayes has always been a bit of a tease for fantasy managers because he always had great plate discipline. He didn’t chase balls outside the strike zone much and made contact above league average. However, he hit the ball too much on the ground, and even when he did send it into the air, it usually went to the opposite field, which wasn’t ideal for producing home runs. However, since going on injured reserve in late July, Hayes has been putting the ball in the air more often. Since August 1st, Hayes has hit 10 of 15 dingers and hit .299/.335/.539. Is this true? No one knows, but it’s a great development for the defense.
**O’Neal Crews broke his ankle sliding home in early April, abruptly ending his season. There was a slim chance that the dynamic shortstop would return by the end of the season, but the team ultimately decided to play it safe and give him the entire season to rest and rehab his ankle. The biggest question for fantasy managers heading into this winter is whether they can believe what he’s accomplished in nine short games. The 6-foot-7 giant lowered his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate, but again only in nine games. He’s certain to be a late pick in this year’s draft, and his ceiling remains attractive.
**Pirates center fielder Jack Swinski had a breakout season, hitting .224/.339/.454 with 26 home runs and 13 stolen bases in 534 at-bats. He has a flyball rate of 53% and a barrel rate of 15.7% which puts him in the 94th percentile. However, with a .608 OPS against left-handed pitchers, the Pirates could easily find a bench spot for the 24-year-old. He finished the season strong, batting .289/.359/.489 in the final month of the season, but questions still remain. Will we see steady production or will it be feast and famine for Captain Jack?
**Henry Davis, the Pirates’ No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft, made his debut this season, but it was a disappointing debut. The 24-year-old hit .213/.302/.351 with seven home runs and three stolen bases in 255 at-bats. He also only qualified as an outfielder entering this spring’s draft season because he didn’t get enough starts behind the plate. He hit just .234 against fastballs this season, so it might be a good idea for the Pirates to send him back to the minors to get him back in shape.
**Will the real Mitch Keller please stand up? Keller spent two seasons in the first half. He appeared to be on track for a breakout season, posting a 3.31 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and a 27 percent strikeout rate. After returning from All-Star festivities, the 27-year-old posted a 5.59 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 24 percent strikeout rate. After May, his average vertical release point began to decline, and in August he bottomed out. He lost about an inch of vertical break on his four-seamer and about two inches on his cutter. As far as we know, Keller didn’t have any long-term injuries, but it’s a little concerning to see such a drastic change during the season. Despite all the negativity, Keller finished the season with career highs in games started, innings pitched, strikeouts and wins.
**How do you follow up on a season with a 2.61 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 19 saves? David Bednar said, “Hold my beer.” The 28-year-old has become a true closer, posting a 2.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 80/21 K/BB ratio, and 39 saves, tied for second in the league. There have been rumors since last winter that the Pirates could trade Bednar and get a ton of prospects in return, but nothing has materialized yet. Even if he is traded, he will likely remain as the closer, so fantasy managers can feel confident that they drafted a reliable closer when selecting him in this winter and spring’s drafts.
**After a lot of back and forth before the draft, the Pirates selected LSU right-hander Paul Skeens with the No. 1 overall pick this summer. Most teams would safely start a college pitcher after the draft, but the Pirates decided to give him a few starts after the draft. He started five games, finished the season in Double-A, and should make his debut with the Pirates sometime next season. There’s been a lot of talk about the shape of Skeens’ fastball, and there are concerns about it, but if he can paint the corners as fast as he can, he’ll be a major league starter for years to come, as long as he remains. Of course it should be healthy.
major free agents
Andrew McCutchen and Vince Velasquez
team needs
As Celine Dion sang, “There was a golden moment, there was a flash of light.” It’s been quite an up-and-down season for Pittsburgh. The Pirates had the seventh-youngest offensive line and third-youngest pitching staff, and were clearly trying to find the right combination of players from their minor league system. They have a great core in Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Mitch Keller, and David Bednar, but it would be in their best interest to sign a free agent or two to add to the team. Maybe. The team has had its share of ups and downs, so the veteran’s sense of stability may have been just what the doctor ordered.
If I kept all my chips, I would work on improving the starting rotation. It will take quite a while to acquire a big starting pitcher in free agency, but I think Lucas Giolito or Sonny Gray would be a good fit. For offensive help, Jong Hui Lee would be a great addition to the outfield, and signing Rhys Hoskins to add some needed strength in the middle of the lineup would be great.