It’s time for your weekly stock up! out of stock! This is a report from the members of Bet the EDGE. He had two focuses this week: the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year market and Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals.
Let’s start with the shockingly bad Bengals. Yes, Joe Burrow is clearly playing hurt. The All-Pro quarterback was unable to pass, which prevented Cincinnati’s offense from making throws downfield.
This week, the Bengals (-162) travel to the desert to take on the surprisingly competitive Arizona Cardinals (+136).
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Drew Dincik (@whale_capper) believes this game will be much more competitive than imagined before the season started.
“Considering the talent and resources they’ve put into that unit, I think the offensive line has been an abysmal failure thus far. So when you play against a well-coached defense, which the Cardinals often are, it’s a little awkward. I think the Bengals defense can perform much better than they did last weekend against the Titans, so until Joe Burrow develops the full ability to use his lower body to force his body, I This game is going to be a pretty obvious look for the under-thrower. It’s clear that the market is overestimating these Bengals’ totals, and that the market is not going to be a bottom-feeding tanker team. I think I’m a little late in recognizing it.”
How did he play on Sunday’s tilt?
“I think the Cardinals can do well enough in this game to stay competitive, and I think it would be a surprise to me to see the Bengals score over 20 points. So the under-45 is what I like best. It’s a style.”
Jay Croucher went on to point out how difficult the rest of the Bengals’ schedule is, with games against the 49ers, Bills and Browns, as well as games against the Chiefs, Jaguars and Ravens. Currently at 1-3, it will be very difficult for Cincinnati and Joe Burrow to make the playoffs.
At the other end of the “surprise spectrum” is CJ Stroud. 2n.d. The 2023 draft pick has been on a roll in recent weeks, with the Houston Texans tied for first in the AFC South at 2-2.
Stroud’s ability to lead the Texans has him sitting atop the DraftKings Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) board.
The current odds are:
CJ Stroud, Houston Texans +175
Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams +425
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons +450
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts +550
Devon Ashen, Miami Dolphins +600
Jay Croucher gave us an overview of this market.
“I think there’s one way to approach pricing in this market, and it runs through C.J. Stroud, because he’s a quarterback who’s playing at a pretty high level right now.” So here are the 50th percentile results from Stroud. How often does he win if he gets it? And for me, he can win quite a lot of times just by getting to the baseline from here. Through four weeks, he ranks 14th among quarterbacks in EPA and 15th per play.th In terms of success rate, 15th PFF grade, 22n.d. Completion rates exceeded expectations. He’s about the 15th-best quarterback in football, and that includes his crap against Baltimore in Week 1, when he was awful.He turned 5 in the last 3 weeksth EPA doesn’t have any offensive line on every play. ”
Dincik agrees that Stroud should be given preferential treatment at this point, but he’s not ready to jump into that market.
There are enough really good candidates at the top that I think it could flip a few more times before it gets to the finish line. If the Texans don’t come out and he doesn’t do well to start against the Falcons and he’s forced into comeback mode and he picks up some AJ Terrell or Jesse Bates and throws, all of a sudden. I would love to get him. The +250/+300 range even after a bad performance is because we know the Texans as a whole will get better as we approach the second half of the season. ”
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*All odds provided by DraftKings